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Joe Nelson - About Me

Joe Nelson has been a regular on the Vegas Insider leader board since 2006. Well known for producing the Nelly’s Sportsline Green Sheet football newsletter, Nelson provides his very best picks to Vegas Insider clients.
The 2013-14 football season was especially profitable for Nelson, finishing as the Vegas Insider win percentage leader in BOTH the NFL and college football at 60%, finishing as the money leader in the NFL and #2 in money earned in college football amongst the deep and excellent field of handicappers at Vegas Insider. Few handicappers have ever been able to put together such strong finishes in both disciplines in the same season.
Nelson has also produced strong seasons in basketball and baseball in addition to the success in football as a long list of documented top finishes on Vegas Insider indicates. Nelson was also the champion of the prestigious Wise Guys Football Contest in 2011, besting a field of 72 national handicappers and then went on to finish 2nd in the same contest in 2012 for impressive back-to-back finishes.
With a statistics background and years of experience working with several established handicappers as well as over a decade as a professional handicapper, Nelson provides a unique approach with traditional methods as well as innovative strategies. Nelson’s handicapping focuses on team situations, schedule analysis, and line evaluation as well as following a variety of statistical indicators that are incorporated into the process.
You can find regular blog posts and articles for insight and commentary throughout the year and be sure to consider getting on board for a successful season.

1 Pick nfl Thursday Picks, Thursday August 25

By Joe Nelson
Posted 08/22/2016 at 04:48 PM

Only in Dallas could hype after two preseason games grow this big but Dak Prescott has certainly impressed in his two preseason games, accounting for four touchdowns last week in a blowout win over Miami. He has completed 22 of 27 passed for 338 yards while passing for four touchdowns and rushing for two more. Prescott had a fine career at Mississippi State routinely going against elite defensive talent with often less help than many of his SEC counterparts. While he was the sixth quarterback drafted in April he has had the biggest preseason impact so far.
The backup quarterback position for the Cowboys has been a sore spot with Brandon Weeden, Matt Cassel, and Kellen Moore combining to make 406 pass attempts last season with 15 interceptions and only 11 touchdowns while taking 27 sacks. In the strong 2014-15 season for the Cowboys Tony Romo had 34 touchdowns against just nine interceptions. Romo took 29 sacks that season and six more last year as the biggest priority for the Cowboys needs to be protecting the quarterback but it is also in Romo’s nature to extend plays. Dallas is a great candidate for a bounce back season and for most they are the favorite in the NFC East but the performance of a rookie that the team hopes won’t play this season shouldn’t be moving the needle quite as much as it is.
The NFC East is always the most overexposed division and two new head coaches have had polar opposite preseason starts with Doug Pederson and the Eagles 2-0 with impressive defensive showings (albeit aided by turnovers) while Ben McAdoo and the Giants are an ugly 0-2 with just 10 points scored. That should not change the consensus opinion (of which we strongly agree) that the Giants will be the stronger team this season although it won’t be a shock if the entire division is again mediocre.
The Eagles have received a lot of negative action this summer as to bet Philadelphia under 7 wins as we suggested in our summer preseason Annual you will now need to lay around -150 juice. Betting the Giants over 8 wins requires upwards of -140 juice and neither has budged after the contrasting preseason results. Recall that last season the Eagles were one of the big preseason risers with a huge fall on the team’s Super Bowl odds from around 18/1 to 10/1 based on big production in the preseason. After a 1-3 start that turned to 4-7 there were a lot of folks tearing up future bets on Philadelphia last season and it quickly became clear Chip Kelly would be released.
The team that few are talking about in the East might be the defending champion Redskins and while the division has had a recent track record of a carousel in the top spot Washington may have a very good chance to repeat as division champions. Last year’s team was an unimpressive 9-7 and the schedule will be a bit harder than the rivals will face but this doesn’t look like a team that will have a big fall like they did after the 2012 division title, going from 10-6 to 3-13 the next season.
Home teams are 16-16 S/U and just 14-18 ATS so far in preseason action with totals nearly dead even at 16/15/1. Laying points has generally been a mistake so far as favorites are just 10-20 ATS (the home team has won both games that closed at a pick) including road favorites 1-3. Best of Luck and on to this week’s slate…



By Joe Nelson
Posted 08/19/2016 at 12:36 PM

Cincinnati Bengals (+1½) 30, Detroit Lions 14 (41½): A second quarter 60-yard interception return touchdown for the Bengals turned the tide in this game and Cincinnati also scored another touchdown with 12 seconds to go in the 1st half to pull away despite eventually being out-gained vs. Detroit. After 26 combined points in the 1st half a scoreless 3rd quarter put the game on pace to stay ‘under’ and a field goal early in the 4th quarter didn’t change that pace too significantly. A marginal punt handed the Bengals great field position inside of five minutes however and the Bengals added a touchdown to put the total at 36, within a touchdown of a rather high total by preseason standards. Behind preseason standout rookie Jake Rudock the Lions completed a 79-yard drive with under a minute to go to flip the over/under result.
New England Patriots (-3) 23, Chicago Bears 22 (41): The spread and the total result on this game flipped as time expired as a 23-11 New England lead heading into the fourth quarter was spoiled. Chicago added a field goal with about seven minutes to go in the game to cut the deficit to nine points and on the final play of the game two college quarterbacks connected for a 22-yard touchdown as Connor Shaw hit B.J. Daniels. The Bears had no chance to win outright but went for two anyway and converted to cost some Patriots backers a push and the touchdown was enough to send the game just ‘over’ the total. The yardage in the game was fairly close and New England benefitted from an interception late in the 1st quarter by former New England quarterback Brian Hoyer that handed the Patriots a 15-yard field to work with in what was the pivotal play of the game.
Minnesota Vikings (+2½) 18, Seattle Seahawks 11 (39): An 11-0 Minnesota lead through three quarters was matched by the Seahawks who scored 11 points early in the fourth quarter behind rookie Trevone Boykin as both teams succeeded on two-point conversions. Teams don’t like to go to overtime in the preseason and that looked like a serious possibility as the 4th quarter clock wound down but Marcus Sherels picked off Boykin and returned the interception 53 yards for the go-ahead touchdown with just over a minute to go. After winning on a Hail Mary and a two-point conversion in Week 1 Seattle was in position to do it again sitting with 1st and goal with 25 seconds to go but the Seahawks ran out of time. The spread and total results would not have changed with another late Seattle touchdown however as Seattle would have gone for two and either won or lost by a single point.


Nelson: Close Calls - Preseason Week 2
Nelson: Close Calls - Preseason Week 1
Nelson: Big Ten Betting Outlook
Nelson: Big 12 Betting Outlook
Nelson: AAC Betting Outlook
2015-2016 NCAA BK #3 Money Leader: +1,709
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2014 MLB #3 Favorites Leader: +1,100
2013-2014 NBA #3 Totals Leader: +993
2013-2014 NFL Money Leader: +1,340
2013-2014 NFL Percent Leader: 60%
2013-2014 NFL Guaranteed Leader: +805
2013-2014 NCAA FB Percent Leader: 60%
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2011-2012 NBA #3 Percent Leader: 55%
2011-2012 NBA #3 Member Leader: +711
2011 MLB #3 Underdog Leader: +1,607
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2008-2009 NCAA BK Guaranteed Leader: +1,250
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2008 MLB #2 Guaranteed Leader: +2,236
2007-2008 NFL #3 Money Leader: +1,470
2006-2007 NCAA FB Member Leader
2006-2007 NBA #3 Percent Leader: 54%
2006 MLB #2 Member Leader: +1,238
2006 MLB #3 Money Leader: +214

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Joe Nelson's NFL Picks
Period: 07/25/2016 to 08/25/2016
Pick Type: All Picks
Record: 4-1-0 ( 80.0% , +290)
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Start Date: End Date:
08/22/2016 at 04:48 PM
Between the Lines - Aug. 22

08/19/2016 at 12:36 PM
NFL Close Calls Thursday

08/15/2016 at 06:22 PM
Between the Lines - Aug. 15

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