Posted 10/21/2013 at 05:16 PM
Much is being made about Florida State leading Oregon for the #2 spot in the BCS standings this week but the teams are almost certain to flip if they both win this week as Oregon plays UCLA while Florida State faces NC State. With the carnage among the top teams in the SEC last week the conference may not have the clout to have a one-loss team slip by an undefeated team like Ohio State or Baylor as there are only two SEC teams in the top 10 of the BCS rankings and there will be more losses to come as teams will have to play each other.
One surprise in the initial rankings is strong support for undefeated non-AQ teams Fresno State and Northern Illinois at #17 and #18 respectively. To get into a BCS bowl those teams need to crack the top 16 like Northern Illinois did last season but also have an automatic qualifying team rank below them, like Louisville and Wisconsin did last season. That looks less likely this year with the AAC champion looking likely to be more formidable and Ohio State back to being eligible for the postseason. The best chance for those teams may be complete chaos in the Big XII where Baylor and Texas Tech currently lead but both have most of the toughest games yet to come. Texas also already has two non-conference losses so it is very possible that the Big XII champion would be a three-loss team in many scenarios should the Bears and Red Raiders tumble in November and no clear cut champion gets separation from the rest of the pack. Not having a Big XII title game and the chance for an upset also hurts that cause however.
Last Sunday in the NFL there were seven defensive touchdowns scored, and discounting the Patriots/Jets game where both teams had defensive scores the other five teams getting the defensive touchdown went 5-0 S/U and ATS. It is not rocket science, those plays can essentially be 14-point swings that are nearly impossible to overcome. Excluding games where both teams had non-offensive touchdowns, teams that have had a touchdown on defense or special teams are 29-11 S/U and 34-7 ATS this season, that’s nearly an 83% proposition but of course those scores are mostly random.
Leading the NFL is Chicago with five non-offensive touchdowns yet the Bears have lost ATS three times in games with such a score and Chicago is just 1-5-1 ATS on the season. The Redskins are another team to be concerned with as Washington has lost twice S/U and ATS in games when they have had a defensive score and Washington sits at just 2-4 S/U and ATS despite being tied with Dallas and Kansas City with four non-offensive touchdowns this season, second best in the league behind the Bears. The Saints, Giants, Eagles, Chargers, and Steelers are the only teams without a non-offensive score this season.
On the other end of the spectrum, Houston’s issues have been well documented and allowing six defensive touchdowns is a big reason for the disappointing start. While Chicago and Washington have had those big plays for them, the Bears have four scores against them and Washington three. The Giants also have four allowed with the Eagles, Rams, Jaguars, and Chargers with three. San Diego has won ATS twice despite allowing a defensive score as the Chargers are a team to watch. Best of Luck, on to this week’s slate…