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BETWEEN THE LINES 10/6

By Joe Nelson
Posted 10/06/2008 at 05:30 PM

Five double-digit college favorites lost outright last week as no team is safe from the upset risk. Tulane and Maryland not only lost as big favorites they were blown out by 31-point margins. South Florida, Bowling Green, and Fresno State also bit the dust laying a big number. A couple of other prominent programs had very close calls in the double-digit favorite role as Kansas, Alabama, and Tennessee played in very tight games. Double-Digit favorites have been favorable propositions this season, and despite those notable losses, 55 percent of favorites of ten or more are covering on the season including 15 of 27 last week.

Underdogs have a very slight lead in the overall results but favorites narrowed that gap with decent results last week. NFL chalk continues to rule in the early going but this is not likely to be a repeat of the 2005 season where favorites dominated in a season long book smashing. ‘Over’ plays also are off to a strong start but expect to see some adjustment in the coming weeks. The ‘over’ went 7-6 last week but a couple of games were aided by late scores despite being on pace for ‘under’ most of the game.

Boise State and BYU are getting most of the press for being a BCS-crasher with an undefeated season. BYU has the toughest road there as the three toughest remaining games are all on the road. Boise State has a challenging non-conference test this week but the Broncos should be favored in every game the rest of the way barring a collapse. The team with the best shot to go undefeated from a non-BCS conference however is Tulsa. The Golden Hurricane is posting insane numbers with the top ranked offense in the nation in terms of yardage and points. Tulsa must play at Arkansas and at Houston in November but those appear to be winnable games. The defensive numbers are not strong but they have not needed to be. The early start does not carry considerable weight as only a win over New Mexico brings some credibility and they will be an interesting case if they go undefeated as they are still outside of the Top 25 and may have a tough time climbing to the necessary levels in the polls. If BYU can not get there in the Mountain West, Utah could. The Utes have a more favorable schedule down the stretch as the games against TCU and BYU will be at home. Entering the top 25 this week is another undefeated small conference team as Ball State moved to 6-0. MAC teams rarely get consideration for an undefeated season but the Cardinals have wins over Navy and Indiana already. The final four games are very tough however so surviving is probably unlikely even though this team looks as strong as any MAC team in recent years.

There are still five undefeated teams in the Big 12 but that number will be decreased by at least two this week as Texas and Oklahoma face off in a top 5 showdown at the Red River Shootout and Oklahoma State and Missouri appear poised for a high-scoring affair. No team in the Pac-10, ACC, or the Big East is still undefeated while three SEC teams and two Big Ten teams are still standing.

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