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Posted 06/21/2008 at 02:26 PM
Since Monday June 16, there were seven "setup" games that the public may have been all over, but eventually lost. All these games were series openers (and one make-up game). These are not necessarily trap games by the oddmakers, instead "setup" games for certain teams. The following will detail why exactly betting on or against streaks isn't always the way to go.
On Monday the 16th, there were three of these "setup" games, starting with the make-up game between the Rockies and Braves at Coors Field. Atlanta, the worst road team in baseball, had just taken two of three over the Angels in Anaheim, and now head to Denver for one game before going to Arlington for a three-game set with the Rangers. The Rockies were fresh off taking two of three from the AL Central leading White Sox in Chicago, and had beaten the Braves three times back in April. Jair Jurrjens had pitched well at home, but awful on the road, and had already lost at Coors Field in the earlier series. The Braves opened up a scoreless game in the fifth with three runs and never looked back en route to a 7-1 victory. All signs pointed towards the Rockies, but they were shut down by Jurrjens and the Braves.
Also that night, two games in California had the same "setup" feel that most bettors didn't realize. In the Bay Area, the Giants had just gotten swept by the A's at home, as San Francisco had to host the red-hot Detroit Tigers, who had won six straight entering the contest. It was a battle of two good young pitchers, with Justin Verlander and Tim Lincecum on the mound, but both teams were just about even money, despite San Francisco's recent slump and Detroit's hot streak. The Tigers led late before the Giants rallied for an 8-6 victory. I'm sure many wanted to see Detroit continue their winning streak, and figured that they can beat a Giants team that was anemic against the A's, but the Tigers backers were wrong.
Down south in Anaheim, the Mets and Angels were starting a three-game set, as New York not only was coming off a doubleheader split at home with Texas on Sunday, but also the Mets were dealing with the rumors of manager Willie Randolph possibly getting fired. The Angels were coming off a victory over the Braves and had the pitching advantage over the Mets, with Jered Weaver taking the mound against Mike Pelfrey. Neither pitched fared well, with each allowing six runs, but the Mets outlasted the Angels, 9-6. That would be Randolph's last game as skipper, as he was fired hours after the game, but the Mets sent him off with a road dog win.
Fast forward to Friday, four more "setup" games, as four dogs came out on top that many didn't expect to even compete.
In Tampa, the Rays were fresh off a three-game sweep of the top team in the NL, the Cubs, and now were hosting the lowly Astros, who were just swept by the Orioles. Houston had come in losers of 19 of their past 22 entering Friday, but jumped on Matt Garza for a pair of first-inning runs, and held off the Rays, 4-3 to pick up their first win in nine tries.
The Mariners traveled cross-country after their manager John McLaren was fired on Thursday, as Seattle battled Atlanta. The Braves, the best home team in baseball, could only muster two runs in a 10-2 drubbing, in which the Mariners, the worst road team in the game, scored all ten runs in the final four innings.
The Royals were coming off a sweep of their cross-state rivals, the Cardinals, while the Giants had lost five of six to the A's and Tigers at home. The easy pick was Kansas City, right? Seemed like that, as the Royals jumped on to a 4-0 lead on Matt Cain and the Giants. Then, Luke Hochevar began to unravel, as the Giants scored nine unanswered runs on their way to a 9-4 victory.
The final "setup" game for Friday night was between the Red Sox and Cardinals at Fenway Park. Boston had just taken the final two from the Phillies in Philadelphia, while the Cards were swept at home by the Royals. St. Louis edged Boston, 5-4 as substantial road underdogs.
The purpose of this blog was to outline that fact that despite the willingness to play streaks in baseball, probably the time to go against it would be at the start of a new series, where struggling teams may need new scenery, whether it being home or away, and hot teams just expect to show up and win, when that may not be the case. Something to think about as we continue on through the summer.
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