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Posted 04/22/2007 at 11:58 AM
This morning I woke up and all I wanted to do was bet baseball. I had gone to sleep last night and had this great desire to bet on baseball games, and it was to late. It was just before midnight, and the west coast games were already into the 6th and 7th innings, so that was that. It was to late, and I had to wait until tomorrow, and there was nothing I could do about it. So I begrudgingly went into bed, pulled up the covers, and started to count Yankee injuries (uh sheep) to help me fall asleep.
The alarm clock finally rang, and with a wide smile I jumped out of bed, ran to get the newspaper, turned on the computer, and began to make my picks for the day. As I opened to the page with the starters for the day I had this queasy feeling in the pit of my stomach.
I looked up and down the whole list of major league games for the day, and found to my chagrin the following;
Smoltz –300
Oswalt –250
Halliday –220
Santana –250
Petittte –200
Webb –240
Willis –250
Schilling –280
Glavine –200
Verlander –220
Penny –180 etc.etc. etc.
All of the pitchers that I wanted to bet were going to cost me an arm and a leg to bet on. I felt that I was drowning in a nightmare of chalk with no way to protect my bankroll. With the state of the bullpens in major league baseball how can you justify wagering this much money to win 100 dollars? How can you justify wagering this much money when you have to win 2 or 3 games just to get even if you lose?
Answer…………..You can’t!!!!!!!!!!!!
While I was pondering this question I found one of my new best friends. That is the Run line. This wager is a very nice alternative to the money line. For instance last night I loved the Yankees (although I really hate the Yankees) and their rookie pitcher. Instead of laying 125 on the Yankees with the money line I bet them –1.5 runs +$150. That’s right I had the Yankees as underdog, knowing that their offense was going to throttle AA Jake Westbrook, and they did.
Don’t get me wrong it does not work all of the time since there are a great amount of one run games, but it is a nice alternative to save your bankroll from heavy chalk, when you want to bet a pitcher that is a prohibitive favorite. As a final example my 5th 6th 7th grade little league team that I coach the Jericho Bats would have been a –150 money line favorite in my opinion on Saturday, but in the run line they would have been –1.5 runs, +125 in my opinion. We won 12-0 so you would have won 125 instead of 100 with the run line, and you did limit the downside risk. A very smart proposition.
So please use the run line to protect your bankroll when betting prohibitive favorites. It can protect your bankroll in the long run.
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