Posted 10/11/2007 at 12:39 PM

We are almost at the half way point in college football and I think it's important to look at some teams that have underachieved and see if those coaches might be on the hotseat. If the heat is getting to these coaches and they either might lose their job or might have to make changes in their staff they might be teams that you either want to stay away from or fade in the coming weeks.

1. Lloyd Carr - Michigan - Just because they have won a few games since dropping their first two games don't think the heat is off. If Carr doesn't win the Big 10 he's either pushed out or bought out of his contract.
The defense has won the last couple weeks because they've faced conventional offenses. When they face spread based offenses the rest of the way they could be in big trouble.

2. Guy Morriss - Baylor - It looked like after three straight wins and a 3-1 record the Bears were improving and on the right path. Since then two blowout losses to Texas A&M and Colorado have put the heat squarly on the coaching staff. In the Texas A&M game the announcers were even openly questioning the offensive playcalling, This team is clearly underachieving and in year number five for Morris he might be out of excuses and realize he could be let go in just a matter of weeks.

3. Bill Doba - Washington State - They finally were competative last week versus Arizona State and probably deserved to win the game but somehow lost despite outgaining the Sundevils by 150 yards. The bar isn't as high here as other places but you still need to go to a bowl every three years. Doba's in year number five and he hasn't had a winning season since year number one. The talent on the team isn't very good and with Oregon, UCLA and California as opponents the next three weeks an upset of one of those teams is essential for him to hold onto his job. The Cougars are 2-4 and must somehow get to 6-6 in order to keep the staff intact. I don't see it happening and they also lose QB Brink to graduation after this year.

4. Phil Bennett - SMU - They could somehow go 3-4 in their last seven games but I don't think it's enough to save his job. Bennett has the Mustangs at 1-4 and they should have won at least two other games. Bennett losses to many close games. His team has some offensive firepower but their defense is bullet riddled and there always seems like numerous injuries on the defensive side of the ball. Bennett better pull a rabbit out of his hat as even he stated they needed a winning record and a bowl appearance this season. In year number six even a 6-6 record like last year won't save him from the firing squad.

5. Houston Nutt - Arkansas - The SEC coach of the year last year might be the first coach fired this season. With possibly the best football player in the country in his backfield the Razorbacks have already lost to Alabama and usual dormat Kentucky. They need to finish 5-2 and beat at least two of the remaining four SEC heavyweights Auburn , South Carolina, Tennessee and LSU for Nutt to escape the chopping block. On top of that distractions over the last year with the loss of QB Mustang, rumors of an affair with a female TV anchor and a new athletic director make Nutt a prime top candidate for the unemployment line unless he can pull of a miracle finish.

FULL STORY

By Lee Sterling
Posted 09/09/2007 at 11:18 AM

Anyone can tell you that Michigan is much worse than last year and Lloyd Carr may not last the season as the coach of the Wolverines. Most bettors and part time handicappers wait until 25% of the season is done or even half way through the season to evaluate which teams will do much better or worse. What the real winners in the handicapping business do is make an evaluation after they have seen two weeks of action. I have done just that and I'm going to give you three teams that look like they will improve as the season goes on and might be pointspread darlings and three teams that might end up in the tank like Michigan. Well, no one can go that bad that quickly.
Teams On The Rise:
1.Colorado State - The Rams are 0-2 and 1-1 ATS but they have a running game again with Kyle Bell back from a knee injury. The skill players on offense are good enough to get them to a bowl game. They could have very easily beat Colorado and California and they are poised to be the third best team in the Mountain West Conference.
2. Ball State - Everyone jumped ship after they lost SU and ATS opening week at home versus Miami (OH) with less than 10 seconds in the game. They recovered nicely with an easy win over Eastern Michigan on the road. It's very important to not base your handicapping decisions on only the first game of the year. The Cardinals have the best young QB in the MAC and QB's determine whether you win or lose more in games where the talent level isn't great. If they lose to Navy and Nebraska and are 1-3 SU this team could do some damage in conference play SU and ATS.
3.South Carolina - HC Steve Spurrier may not have the high octane offenses like he had at Florida but they are good enough to win the SEC East because he has a top ten defense. If they lose by double digits to LSU on the road which is very likely in week #4 there will be value in playing them often in the last 8 games.
Teams On The Decline:
1. Clemson - Trust me here. They run the ball extremely well and have a good but not great defense but HC Tommy Bowden can make a possible top ten ranking and double digit wins turn in to a 7-5 season SU before you can snap your fingers. He has only had two pointspead winning seasons in the last seven and he has a QB who can't throw the ball downfield. the special teams are below average also. After N.C. State they'll probably be 4-0 SU. It wouldn't suprise me if they lose SU and ATS versus Georgia Tech and Virginia Tech in midseason.
2. Texas A@M - they aren't even close to Texas or Oklahoma in terms of talent. Coach Fran saved his job with a win over Texas at the end of last year. They can't throw the football and the defense stinks. Middle of the pack Big 12 teams will throttle the Aggies this season.
3.N.C .State - Everyone thought that bringing in a coach that instills discipline would turn them around. The problem is they have very little talent. The QB shuffle is already on and the lost their best RB Toney Baker.
They can't score and they can't defend. That's abad combination even in a mediocre ACC.

FULL STORY