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Posted 09/09/2007 at 11:18 AM
Anyone can tell you that Michigan is much worse than last year and Lloyd Carr may not last the season as the coach of the Wolverines. Most bettors and part time handicappers wait until 25% of the season is done or even half way through the season to evaluate which teams will do much better or worse. What the real winners in the handicapping business do is make an evaluation after they have seen two weeks of action. I have done just that and I'm going to give you three teams that look like they will improve as the season goes on and might be pointspread darlings and three teams that might end up in the tank like Michigan. Well, no one can go that bad that quickly.
Teams On The Rise:
1.Colorado State - The Rams are 0-2 and 1-1 ATS but they have a running game again with Kyle Bell back from a knee injury. The skill players on offense are good enough to get them to a bowl game. They could have very easily beat Colorado and California and they are poised to be the third best team in the Mountain West Conference.
2. Ball State - Everyone jumped ship after they lost SU and ATS opening week at home versus Miami (OH) with less than 10 seconds in the game. They recovered nicely with an easy win over Eastern Michigan on the road. It's very important to not base your handicapping decisions on only the first game of the year. The Cardinals have the best young QB in the MAC and QB's determine whether you win or lose more in games where the talent level isn't great. If they lose to Navy and Nebraska and are 1-3 SU this team could do some damage in conference play SU and ATS.
3.South Carolina - HC Steve Spurrier may not have the high octane offenses like he had at Florida but they are good enough to win the SEC East because he has a top ten defense. If they lose by double digits to LSU on the road which is very likely in week #4 there will be value in playing them often in the last 8 games.
Teams On The Decline:
1. Clemson - Trust me here. They run the ball extremely well and have a good but not great defense but HC Tommy Bowden can make a possible top ten ranking and double digit wins turn in to a 7-5 season SU before you can snap your fingers. He has only had two pointspead winning seasons in the last seven and he has a QB who can't throw the ball downfield. the special teams are below average also. After N.C. State they'll probably be 4-0 SU. It wouldn't suprise me if they lose SU and ATS versus Georgia Tech and Virginia Tech in midseason.
2. Texas A@M - they aren't even close to Texas or Oklahoma in terms of talent. Coach Fran saved his job with a win over Texas at the end of last year. They can't throw the football and the defense stinks. Middle of the pack Big 12 teams will throttle the Aggies this season.
3.N.C .State - Everyone thought that bringing in a coach that instills discipline would turn them around. The problem is they have very little talent. The QB shuffle is already on and the lost their best RB Toney Baker.
They can't score and they can't defend. That's abad combination even in a mediocre ACC.
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