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Posted 02/01/2008 at 05:43 PM
Well you think this isn't an interesting Super Bowl, don't you?
It seems that over the years, the Super bowl has lost some of its appeal. It just doesn't have the pizzaz it once had. Although attendance and t. v. ratings are up the excitement that surrounds sports' biggest game is down. When I was a kid the Super Bowl was everything. I remember when I was a kid my parents would have a packed party with big-screen projection televisions and catered food. Half of the guests would wear one teams jerseys while the other half would wear the other teams jerseys.
Well I am here to tell you that this Super Bowl has it all. Let's start with the two places the teams hail from. New York and Massachusetts are two of the biggest media states in the Union. New York is the be all end all of the world's media market. , Massachusetts is very big in the public eye in its own right. Set aside the history Yankee/Red Sox rivalry. These two states just plain old don't like each other. These are two very different teams. New England has compiled a phenomenal 18-0 record rolling over everyone in their way. New York has had tumultuous season. But has beaten superior teams of late to get to this point. Beginning with the coaches . . . After the fist month of the season, Tom Coughlin was hung in the newspapers and Giants fans made mock dummies of him to hang outside the stadium by a noose. At seasons start, New England leader Bill Belichik was fined for "snooping" on his opponents practices prior to the Super Bowl. Next their Quarterbacks, New York front-man Eli Manning isn't even the second most popular Manning in sports.
He has had an erratic career, however he has played and won three huge games (perhaps the biggest and best of his career)in recent weeks. Patriots Quarterback Tom Brady is cute, dates supermodels, and if he stays on this pace he will go down as one of the best players to ever play the game. Retired New York Giants running back Tiki Barber quit prematurely because he said his coach was an idiot and they could never win the big one. Nobody gave Brandon Jacobs a chance but he stepped in and never missed a beat. New England acquired league "big mouth" Randy Moss and he hasn't said "boo" all season. New York’s defense has been remarkable led by their defensive ends Michael Strahan and Osi Umenyiora.
Patriots linebacker Tedy Bruschi came back from a life threatening illness to become the heart and soul of a very talented squad. Let's talk about the hype. New York Giants wide receiver Plaxico Burress stated in the newspapers that the Patriots wouldn't score more than 17 points this week. An interesting statement considering New England hasn't been held to less than 20 points by any opponent all season. Last week we saw pictures of New England Q. B. Tom Brady on the way to his girlfriends house with a "boot" on his leg. Do you think this was a ploy by propaganda king Bill Belichik? Brady (as well as half the team)has been on the injured list for over two years. In that time span ,Brady has become one of the leagues most durable players without missing a single game. Let's talk about the betting aspect of the game. To begin with, let's chat about "prop" bets. Prop bets are fun. People that never make a wager during the season bet the prop bets. From a gamblers point of view ,this isn't where you make your serious money. I would advise you to stay away from the "guess" props.
These are props that can be wagered on and have no significant justification for betting on them. For example "will the first pass be a completion or not ?","will Amani Toomer have a reception of more than 17 1/2 yards? "A true bettor won't wager on these. If you are a gambler and you want "value" bet the coin toss. there is a 50/50 shot and no vig. If your girlfriend wants to bet $5 on all the funny props ,then by all means bet until your hearts content. I looked at the props and came up with some logical ,less risky prop bets. Bets you can justify with some confidence. For example, "total fumbles 1 1/2","total field goals 3 1/2","total sacks 4","longest field goal completed 42 1/2 yards", "total completions by Tom Brady 26. "Of course you can bet the over or under on any of these. You can do your homework on the trends and streaks of these props and go from there. The money line. The money line on the game is -$4. 20 on the Patriots and takeback +$3. 50 on the Giants. If you think New York can win outright, throw a few bucks on them. But if you like the Giants I would rather take the 12 points and the - $1. 10.
The money line here favors the favorite here. A true money line minus 12 points is -$6. 50. If you like the Patriots but don't know if they can cover the 12 points I feel there is a lot of value on them with the money line. If you are a "healthy" bettor that likes New England, this is certainly your edge. As for the game itself, who is going to cover. . . well I will leave that to you and the fine handicappers here on VegasInsider.com. The most important thing in betting is money management. Something that I have come across in past Super Bowls is the common mistake people make in their betting of it. People that are up for the season look to double their winnings. Guys, don't chance it, there is plenty of basketball to bet. People that are down for the season look to get even.
Chasing your money on any day is the biggest mistake in the world. Especially on the Super Bowl! You see, there is a limited amount of action…one game. If this was a regular season weekend there would be 50-60 college and 15 pro games to bet. You could be a bit more selective. Don't ever force a play. On this, the biggest sports betting day of the year, have fun. Grab a beer, grab your girlfriend, put on your favorite teams jersey and enjoy. Be sure to check out my very successful winning NBA plays.
Thank you, Joey
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