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Posted 03/27/2008 at 06:34 AM
Well folks,the weather has changed.Hoops and Pucks are almost at playoff time.That could only mean one thing...Baseball is here.Let's face it,we all love the National pastime.We played it in little league,we (even though we don't know any of the player's)tune into ESPN during the College World Series,and we cheer for our home town team.We all love the game of baseball.The one problem is that most of the gambler's out there either don't know how to bet on it or are afraid to bet on it. Let me put it this way..If I put 100 sports bettor's in a room ,all 100 would bet football.If I asked the same 100 players the question ,"Who wants to stay and bet basketball?" about 20-30 people would leave.If I took the same 100 players and only allowed the fans that wager on baseball intelligently and with some frequency ,I wouldn't have enough people to form a choir.As a matter of fact,only about 20% of sports bettor's bet baseball on a regular basis.The ironic part of it is that these people represent the few that can make serious money betting on sports. Your first lesson in Baseball 101 is value,value,value.It isn't always about which team will win as much as where you can get the most bang for your buck.Listen sports fans,if the heavyweight champion was fighting a 16 year old amateur boxer in his first fight ,sure he will probably win .But would you risk $10,000 to win a mere $100 ?Always take into account the money that you are laying against the money you may profit. Here's another thing.During football season,95% of your games are on Saturday or Sunday.So even if you aren't crazy about some of your wagers you will most likely bet them anyway because you won't have another chance for action until next weekend.In baseball ,you have a full slate of games 6 days a week.Patience is key here ,guys.If you don't have a strong play today ,then odds are you will have one tomorrow. OK sports fans now you are ready for the next stage. Don't be afraid to bet against the big pitcher's.You will see that there are several pitcher's that no matter what the situation are huge favorite's.Pay attention.Thay are favorite's for a reason.These elite ace's are the league's best.They are that way because they have proven themselves in the past.Or did they?You will see some moundsmen as much as $3.00 or more favorite's.Not since Bob Gibson,Sandy Koufax,and Ron Guidry has any pitcher deserved to be so great that you must lay 3-1 odds.As far back as I could research,there has never been an undefeated pitcher that threw for an entire season.I am not saying that each time you see a big favorite ,you should bet against him but what I am saying is that there is value in (from time to time)going against them. Next lesson. Shop around for your numbers.If there is a team that you really like and the value is there then make sure you look before you leap.To a player that normally bets a few hundred to a nickel a game,the difference between a favorite of $1.22 and $1.27 could cost you an extra $20-$50.Then if you multiply that by 2-3 plays a week over a 7 month span,it will cost you thousands of dollars. Here's another tip. Do your homework.When looking at a game be sure to research trends and streaks of certain pitcher's and certain teams."Does that pitcher who has won 4 in a row have a good record vs. this team?"For that matter,"Does that team that has won 7games in a row have a good record versus this team?"There aren't any scientific facts here but past performances will certainly give you some justification or at least a place to start.Also check out the umpire's.Hey,baseball doesn't use instant replay.So as long as human beings have control over balls and strikes,outs and safes,fair and fouls,there will never be exact consistency.On the bright side,the one thing we can count on is human consistency.For example,if a certain umpire has a wider strikezone then you know that "control"pitchers will use the corners.The batter's are also aware or this.In everyday terms,that means that if an ump has a "liberal" strikezone then hitter's will swing at some outside pitches they wouldn't usually swing at.So in short,check the umpire's stats. By all means bet with your head and wallet and not your heart.Try to stay away from your favorite team.Either betting for them or betting against them.We so often make the mistake of thinking that we "know"our team.I by faith an a Yankee fan.Although over the last decade they win significantly more than they lose,if I bet them on a daily basis,by mid-season I would be broke.Why?Because they are usually huge favorite's at home and they are small to medium favorite's on the road(which historically road teams aren't as successful as when they are at home).Always bet with your head and not your heart. You are almost ready to graduate. As I said at the start of this article,it is all about value,value,value.As a rule of thumb,I don't care if the 1927 Yankee's are playing at home ...I don't lay more than $1.35.Understand this...If you are a $100 player and you lose two consecutive bets of $1.50 ,you must now win three in a row just to get even.Like I said,I won't lay more than $1.35.If you did your homework and you love a game and it is more than $1.35 fav then I would possibly look at betting them on the run line minus a run and a half. OK graduates,you are now ready to surge forward and begin the very lucrative baseball season.Hey guys,here is the straight dope.Only a select few well informed players can be disciplined enough and resourceful enough to make you money.That is why you are here.You took the first step by joining this site.Vegas Insider has amassed the best and most acute nucleus of handicapper's anywhere.Make sure you take full advantage of that.Now let's make money.Thank you.
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