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Posted 08/04/2009 at 03:50 AM
I’m a great believer in thinking outside the box. After watching the Chicago Cubs barely escape with a 4-2 victory Monday night against the Reds, I’m convinced that the only way the Cubs will have a real chance to win the NL pennant is by overhauling the bullpen pecking order and turning over the last three outs to someone else. And that someone else happens to be Angel Guzman.
The Cubs are in a virtual tie with the Cardinals for the top spot in the NL Central. But their ninth-inning work has been less than stellar, to put it mildly, and it’s not going to get any better with Kevin Gregg or Carlos Marmol. Gregg has been the closer for the most part. He’s got 21 saves, but he’s also blown five wins. That’s a poor percentage, and none of his numbers indicate he’s the right man for the job. Marmol has the slider from hell, and he’s basically unhittable. But the max-effort righty just cannot find the plate with any frequency. He’s walking nearly one batter for every inning he works. Marmol’s stuff may be electric, but his ERA is ordinary and his WHIP is awful. He’s also an unacceptable 4/8 in save opportunities. I have to tell you, this is just not a guy I can trust with a big game on the line. My thoughts are that Lou Piniella feels the same way, which is why Gregg has been the primary closer all season.
I would like to see Guzman get a shot. Once a huge prospect as a starter, a series of injuries seemed to have relegated Guzman to life as one of those “what could have been” types. But now working exclusively in short bursts out of the pen, Guzman is putting up some very impressive numbers. Make no mistake, he’s been the best relief pitcher on the Cubs roster.
Guzman has worked in 41 games this season, and has given up more than one run only once in his 45.2 IP of work. He’s shown the ability to work on back to back days without a problem. Guzman even had one stretch where he worked in three consecutive games, a strong indicator that he’s not having a problem with the grind.
I know that making this move in early August would definitely raise some eyebrows and there’s always the chance it could be a complete bust. But it also might be the perfect antidote for the ongoing late inning bullpen ailments that have plagued the Cubs all season. I guess it’s a bit of a gamble, but I would put in the low risk, high reward category. If Guzman craps out, Piniella can always go right back to Gregg or Marmol. If it works out, the Cubs become a more viable pennant contender than they are right now. Because the opinion here is that the Cubs will not win the NL Central with their present bullpen alignment, and I’ll take an even stronger stance that they will be meat in the playoffs without a reliable finisher.
I don’t believe there’s much chance the Cubs will actually make the move to Guzman as their closer. I think they’ll stay with what hasn’t worked for them all season. And that’s one more reason the Cubs won’t win it all again this season. I know one thing. When it’s been 101 years without a championship, maybe it’s time to start thinking outside the box.
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Luke Hochevar has pitched pretty well lately for the Royals. But KC is an absolutely awful team right now, and they’re and they have a lineup that doesn’t match up well against lefties. The Mariners got a big effort last time out from Ryan Rowland-Smith and he can shut down this opponent as well. I’ll lean Seattle’s way tonight.
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