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Posted 08/13/2009 at 03:55 AM
Odds and ends in today’s blog.
I wrote yesterday about the need for expanded use of instant replay in baseball. Anyone who viewed Wednesday’s Dodgers-Giants game can’t rationally disagree with this assessment. The umpiring throughout this series was dismal, and I’m pretty sure every missed call went in favor of the Dodgers and against the Giants. Please note I could not care less about either team from a fan standpoint, and I didn’t have any wagers on these games. So I’m commenting purely from a neutral standpoint.
Let’s also explode another myth here. How many times have you heard someone bring up the old 95% cliche? You know, the one about how they get the call right 95% of the time. Technically, that may be accurate. But the fact is that most of the calls aren’t that close, so that number is skewed. On the close plays, I think they’re right more often than they’re wrong, but a 75/25 ratio may actually be generous. And there’s nothing wrong with that. If I had the job, I’d be flipping a coin on those tight plays. These guys are the best, but even the best can’t be expected to avoid getting a good number of close calls wrong. Replay fixes that. Use it.
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I am absolutely dumbfounded at how many analysts are giving J.P. Ricciardi a pass on the Alex Rios fiasco. Their argument is that this was a good move because it got the Blue Jays out from under a big contract. Uh, yeah, a big contract that was offered by someone named J.P. Ricciardi.
I think Rios is a solid player. Perhaps he shouldn’t be getting paid superstar money, as he’s not quite in that category. But he’s a quality OF. Decent power, good speed, nothing wrong with his defense. Rios has some flaws. He never has mastered the strike zone and his mechanics get completely out of whack at times. But at the worst, he’s a decent five-tool performer, and I like his chances of improving with the White Sox.
Even if Rios stays exactly at his present level, he has value. Giving him away simply to save money is never a good thing. The Blue Jays should have at least demanded a prospect in return. Maybe not a prime talent, but even a decent organizational type player would have justified this move a little more than simply handing him over to anyone willing to pick up his contract.
Ricciardi has gone from bad to worse with this move. He’s been a lousy talent evaluator from the outset, in so far as he’s had a knack for going after players who have already reached their zenith and then overpaying them. But at least J.P. was trying to win, and I’ll always give a guy credit for the effort, even when things don’t work out. But now he’s just looking to improve the Blue Jays bottom line, and I’m not talking about the one on the field.
As for the White Sox, getting Rios is another sharp maneuver by Kenny Williams. Faced with the prospect of losing a couple of key offensive performers at the end of the season, this is a proactive move by Williams. He’s fortified his team for the remainder of 2009, while also making sure they’re not faced with an empty cupboard come 2010. That’s a GM who is not only trying to win, but also has a game plan in place.
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On to football. The pre-season is underway, and as is always the case, particularly this early, we’re getting great comments from players and coaches alike in terms of what they’re planning to work on in these opening games. The exhibition season is the only time of the year where team personnel are going to be so forthcoming in literally giving away their game plans. This is precisely the reason I love the pre-season from a gambling stance, as these are edges I’m sure not going to have at my disposal once the games count.
It cracks me up when I hear some analysts talk about how it’s impossible to try and predict what will happen in these games. It doesn’t necessarily follow that I’m always going to win a game where I’ve got good information. But the odds definitely swing to my side of the equation, and that’s really the only objective I want to accomplish. If I can do that, I’m inevitably going to win more than I lose. So to those who choose to sit out the pre-season because the games don’t count, I’ll simply offer the opinion that you could not be more wrong, and that you’re tossing away a good opportunity to realize a tidy profit.
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The Cardinals and Steelers staged a great battle in last season’s Super Bowl. I’ll take a shot and say tonight’s game won’t be quite as exciting. The pre-season trends actually give the edge to the Steelers, as Mike Tomlin seems to like winning even when it doesn’t matter. But even in a meaningless exhibition game, I have to think the Cardinals would like to wash some of the taste of that demoralizing Super Bowl defeat out of their systems, so I’ll lean Arizona’s way tonight.
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