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Posted 08/25/2009 at 02:00 AM
It’s time to get rolling with this year’s college conference previews. I’ll start things off with a look at the league that’s closest to home, the Mountain West.
The MWC is actually two leagues in one. BYU, TCU and Utah have their own thing going, and then there’s everyone else. There might be the occasional shocker where one of the bottom six rises up and stuns one of the powerhouses. But the fact remains that the gap between the top trio and the rest of the league seems to be widening.
I had Utah winning the league last season, and going unbeaten in the process. That was not an especially difficult call, as they not only had a very solid team, they also had a huge scheduling edge with their games vs. TCU and BYU both taking place in Salt Lake City. I actually thought TCU was the most talented team in the conference, but the scheduling dynamics were working against the Frogs.
This season, it’s BYU that enjoys the advantage as they will host their two toughest rivals. That’s another tough break for the Horned Frogs, as I again feel they’re the most talented entry in the MWC. It’s also bad news for the league. TCU is the only team with a chance to break the BCS party, but a loss at Provo will severely hamper their chances of getting that invite.
Nevertheless, I’m going to forecast that TCU will find a way to get that win at BYU, and if they can pull off that feat, they might just get to one of the big bowls at 12-0. It won’t be easy, as the Frogs have a difficult trip to Clemson on the slate as well. And there is a good deal of inexperience on the defensive front seven, so TCU could be vulnerable early. But there’s all kinds of talent on this squad and with Gary Patterson’s track record, this will almost certainly be a team that’s pretty powerful. They will also get considerably stronger as the season progresses.
BYU was 10-3 last season, but I’m not sure the Cougars were that good. They were lucky to beat a woeful Washington entry, and barely got past a couple of the MWC lesser lights. They were also crushed by both TCU and Utah and were handled comfortably by Arizona in their bowl game. This year’s Cougars have to break in an almost all new offensive line, and also have to find someone to fill the shoes of departed wideout Austin Collie. I suspect BYU might get trampled to start the season with a game against Oklahoma and they have a tough early game with Florida State on tap as well. If the OL comes together quickly, BYU could be outstanding. But I see some question marks on this team, and despite their scheduling edge in conference, I will pick them to finish only second.
Utah will be strong again, but they lost lots of talent from last year’s perfect entry and they’re going to have a very tough time having to face both TCU and Utah on the road. The Utes also have a nasty journey to Oregon on the slate. Utah is also breaking in new coordinators on both sides of the ball, and they’re now the team everyone else will have circled on their schedule. But don’t expect the bottom to fall out in SLC. The Utes should still win nine games and garner an attractive bowl bid.
As for the rest of the league, I see a two-team duel for fourth place between Air Force and UNLV. I like the Rebels to come out on top in what should be Mike Sanford’s best season to date. The Rebels have a star QB in Omar Clayton, another excellent corps of receivers and a staunch front seven on defense that has a chance to be outstanding. The keys to UNLV’s season will be twofold. They have to stay healthy as there’s not a great deal of quality depth on this roster. And they have to learn how to finish on the road. The Rebels have won only two road games under Sanford. Their first away game this season will be at Wyoming in late September. That challenge may well determine whether UNLV gets to its first bowl since 2000 and I feel as though it’s the key to the rest of the season.
As for Air Force, they were fortunate to win eight games last season. They caught a couple of huge breaks along the way. This year’s Falcons may actually be a stronger entry on paper. But they have road games at Minnesota and Navy, as well as having to visit both Utah and BYU. That’s a tough slate, so while I think Air Force may have enough to churn out six wins and another bowl bid, it won’t be easy.
Colorado State was the MWC surprise team in 2008, capping off a winning campaign by beating Fresno State in a bowl game. Matching last year’s ledger will be tough. The Rams have a gaping hole in their backfield with Gartrell Johnson having graduated and I thought Billy Farris was an underrated QB. The good news is that Steve Fairchild looks like a terrific head coach so I don’t expect CSU to fall on their faces. But 6-6 seems to be about the ceiling for this year’s Rams.
San Diego State is my surprise team in this year’s Mountain West. There’s virtually no place to go but up off last year’s ugly 2-10 record. But I suspect the good days may be coming for the Aztecs with Brady Hoke now running the program. I like Ryan Lindley to come on in a hurry at QB after a rough freshman campaign. There’s a good deal of experience on this team and with a new attitude, the Aztecs are no longer likely to be a pushover. I expect this team to win at least five games this season, and if they can pull off a mild surprise at Colorado State or at UNLV, a bowl game is not out of the question for SDSU.
Wyoming has a new coach as Dave Christensen inherits the reigns from beleaguered Joe Glenn. The Cowboys are the mystery team in the league. They have 16 returning starters, but I’m not sure if they’re any good. Did Wyoming simply underachieve with all of last season’s distractions or are they just plain lousy? Time will tell. What I do know is that Wyoming has non-conference tilts with Texas, Colorado and Florida Atlantic. They aren’t likely to beat any of the MWC’s upper echelon, so that’s six likely losses right there. They also have to visit Air Force, San Diego State and Colorado State. I cannot see this team winning more than three or four games tops, and a 2-10 slate would not be at all surprising.
New Mexico is last and, for the time being, least as well. Rocky Long managed to keep the Lobos competitive for years despite having pretty mediocre talent. But they fell to 4-8 last year, they now have a new staff and New Mexico is very inexperienced this season. The Lobos will be inputting completely new schemes into place on both offense and defense, and the schedule is daunting. I see a very realistic possibility that New Mexico will win no more than one game, and they appear to be doomed to the MWC cellar this season.
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