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Posted 08/26/2009 at 03:09 AM
I kicked off my College Conference previews yesterday with the Mountain West. Today, it’s a look at the WAC, where Boise State enters not only as the heavy favorite, but also as a team with designs on a big national ranking.
Make no mistake, the WAC is Boise State and then everyone else. The Broncos absolutely own this league. They’ve won 54 of their last 56 games against league opposition and they’re very likely to make it 62-2 by running the table this season. Boise simply has way more talent than any other school in this sector. The biggest obstacle to a perfect season may be their season opener against an explosive Oregon entry. As far as WAC roadblocks are concerned, the only even mildly dangerous spot could be a trip to Fresno State, but the Bulldogs would need a near perfect game to pull the upset. Personally, I think Boise State is a little overrated. They’re barely in my Top 20. But that’s still light years ahead of everyone else in the WAC and with an easy slate after Oregon, a BCS bowl bid could be in the offing for the Broncos.
Nevada is the second best team in the WAC, but the bad news for the Wolf Pack is that they have to travel to Boise this season. This is, however, another good UNR squad. The offense is going to be flashy and explosive, and the defense is improved. For some reason, this school’s special teams have been consistently awful, and that overlooked unit needs to get better or it could cost them a game at some point. Nevada appears to be a cinch to win at least nine games and double digits are not out of the question.
Fresno State is the mystery team in the WAC. Pat Hill’s rep has taken a bit of a hit the last few seasons, and what used to be a very dangerous non-BCS program has actually become little more than a decent mid-level entry. Fresno has lots of experience, and I don’t see their inexperience at QB being a huge problem. The schedule is, as always, very challenging. Road games at Wisconsin, Cincinnati and Illinois as well as at Reno are likely losses, plus there’s the game with Boise. The Bulldogs are good enough on paper to win their other seven contests, so there’s a chance for something good if they can spring an upset somewhere. But the aura surrounding this program just doesn’t seem to be there anymore.
San Jose State has returned to a respectable level the last few years and I expect that to continue under the leadership of Dick Tomey. The Spartans are limited, but very solid fundamentally. This is the best team Tomey has fielded at San Jose, but they do have a very tough slate with Fresno and Boise on the road as well as non-league visits to USC and Stanford. They also have Utah plus Boise at home, and unfortunately, this team does not have a great home field advantage. The Spartans will likely start the year 0-3, so this team could be an excellent value later in the season. And I see a good opportunity for them to close strongly enough to be in the mix for a rare minor bowl bid with six or seven wins.
Louisiana Tech was one of my surprise teams last year, and that turned out to be a good call as the Bulldogs had a fine season and scored their first bowl win since 1977. They are probably a little more talented than they were last season. But I think La Tech sneaked up on a few opponents last year and that usually doesn’t happen in back to back seasons. The schedule is much tougher as well. Louisiana Tech looks as though they will struggle to win half their games this time around.
Utah State is the most improved team in the WAC. I think Gary Anderson is a great hire as head coach, and the Aggies return loads of experience. Utah State has won three or fewer games in each of the last six seasons, but they should snap that ugly streak this year. In fact, if they can spring an upset or two, I would not rule out a six-win campaign that would get them eligible for a bowl! That’s a bit of a long shot, but things are finally looking up in Logan.
The team heading in the other direction this year looks to be Hawaii. The Warriors have been big winners throughout this decade, but they’re clearly in a rebuilding mode this year with only eight returning starters. The offense might be decent, but this team is going to have a tough time on defense. Hawaii also has six road games this year and on paper only two of them look like wins to me. I can’t see Hawaii being any better than a five or six win team this time around.
The bottom of the WAC is putrid. New Mexico State and Idaho are among the ten worst teams in all of college football. I’ll tab the Aggies to edge out the Vandals for eighth place in the WAC, thanks to the fact they host Idaho to open the season. I do like the NMSU hire of Dewayne Walker and I would not be at all surprised to see this program get much better within a couple of seasons. But for now, it’s a bleak outlook. As for Idaho, there’s a real chance they could go 0-11. That visit to Las Cruces to start the season may actually be their best chance to garner even a single win.
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