By Dave Cokin
Posted 08/31/2009 at 01:28 AM

Another conference preview in today’s blog, with the focus this time on Conference USA. In the interests of both time and space, I’m capsulizing the teams and I’ll cover both divisions today. The East looks like a two-team battle while the top three teams in the West appear to be just about even.

I’m going with Southern Mississippi to get the top spot in CUSA East. Damion Fletcher is probably the best RB in the league and Austin Davis did a terrific job as a freshman starting QB. Most importantly, the Golden Eagles have nine starters back from a defense that was by far the league’s best down the stretch last season. In a league ruled by offense, having that reliable stop unit is huge. Southern Miss is my choice to not only win the East, but the overall league title as well.

East Carolina is the defending champ, and they should be solid again. Skip Holtz decided to stay in Greenville for at least one more year, and the Pirates have 16 starters back from last year’s squad. They do have Southern Miss at home in the season finale, so picking against them is not easy. The Pirates should have no trouble getting a fourth straight bowl bid.

Central Florida was a disappointment last season, going just 4-8. The Knights have lots of returning experience, however, and a very favorable schedule. I’m not wild about the talent level on this team, but unless they fall on their faces, UCF should churn out seven wins and get back to a bowl game.

Memphis has a nasty schedule, and getting a third straight bowl invite might be tough. The big concerns for the Tigers are in the trenches on both offense and defense. It would not shock me if Tommy West finds a way to forge another winning record, but I’m forecasting the Tigers to be down a couple of notches this season.

Marshall used to be an annual power but moving up in class to CUSA has not paid dividends on the field for the Thundering Herd. They’ve endured four straight losing season since joining this league, and head coach Mark Snyder is likely in a must win scenario this year. The experience is there, and this is by far the best defensive unit they’ve fielded recently. Marshall has a chance to move up this year, but they’ve been a terrible road team under Snyder and will have to prove it to me.

UAB is the most improved team in the league, and if exciting QB Joe Webb can cut down on the mistakes, the Blazers could start climbing the conference ladder. UAB has a great chance to start the year 2-0 and it will be interesting to see what they can do with a little momentum. The defense showed some real improvement late last season, but they did graduate their two leading tacklers. I’m picking UAB at the bottom of the East, but they could surprise and climb a couple steps this season.

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I think you can throw a blanket over the three top teams in the West. But since it’s more fun to pick upsets, I’ll go out on a limb and go with UTEP to win the division. The Miners have a powerhouse offensive line, which should allow them to balance the offense, and that makes QB Trevor Vittatoe even more dangerous. But I expect the big improvement to be on defense, where the Miners were ravaged by injuries last season. UTEP gets both Tulsa and Houston at home, so I’ll tab them to win the West.

Houston won eight games last season, including the bowl nod over Air Force. The Cougars got off to a poor start, losing three of their first four, as they were severely impacted by a hurricane that swept through the region in September. This team has a powerhouse offense led by QB Case Keenum. The defense might be a problem, with just four starters returning. On paper, Houston might be the best in the West, but they do have to face both UTEP and Tulsa on the road.

Tulsa took some serious graduation hits, losing their three biggest producers on offense. But the young talent on hand is highly regarded, especially at QB and head coach David Graham is a winner. If the skill position newcomers mature quickly, another division title is not out of the question. But while this team will likely go bowling again, I see UTEP and Houston being just a bit ahead of the Golden Hurricane this year.

SMU has had to endure back to back 1-11 campaigns, but things are about to change for the Mustangs. June Jones is starting to attract his type of player to Dallas and he’s got a QB in Bo Levi Mitchell who’s ready to bust out. If you look back at last year’s game breakdowns, you’ll see that SMU was in several games, but just didn’t know how to seal the deal. I think you’ll start to see that change this year. The results won’t be spectacular just yet, but I would look for 3-4 SMU wins this year, with the future looking good.

Rice enjoyed a banner 2008 season, winning nine regular season games and then throttling Western Michigan in a bowl game. Now comes the aftermath. The Owls offense has been completely decimated by graduation and the incoming talent is not as good as the players they’re replacing. The defense was actually not very good last season, but no one noticed with the points the offense put up. They will this year, and it looks like a rough campaign for Rice.

Tulane hasn’t had a winning season since 2002, and there’s virtually no chance of anything changing this time around. The Green Wave return only 13 starters and two of those players have been suspended for the first two games. The schedule is very tough, and I’ve never been a great believer in Bob Toledo. Figure Tulane to win no more than three games.