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Posted 10/08/2009 at 12:06 PM
My weekly free plays in college football are now 4-1 with the tough loss on Michigan last week. The Wolverines were outplayed for most of the game, but rallied late to force overtime. There’s nothing worse than having an underdog in OT, as nothing good can happen at that point. All that can change is that a winner can turn into a loser, and that’s exactly what took place last week. Michigan State was clearly just looking to set up a game-winning FG following a Michigan turnover, as they ran the ball on a 3rd and nine play. But a missed tackle sprung the Spartans RB all the way to the end zone, and Michigan +3? or +4 went up in smoke. Tough beat, but that’s why it’s called gambling.
This week, I’m looking at fairly hefty favorite, but I feel Temple will have an easy time with Ball State. The Cardinals are off a very tough home loss to Toledo. Ball State is not a good team this year, but they put themselves in position for a great win with a late score and a successful two-point conversion to take a 30-29 lead with less than one minute to play. But Toledo QB Aaron Opelt found a receiver wide open behind the Cardinals secondary and just like that, the Rockets snatched victory from the jaws of defeat. That finish creates a very difficult scenario for Ball State this week, as it’s never easy for a team to put a loss like that behind them. The fact they now have to travel to Temple for a meeting with a surging Owls entry compounds the problem.
Temple is positioning itself as a team with a real chance to capture the MAC’s Eastern Division. Last year, the Owls had their best season in ages, winning five games. It could have been much better than that, as Temple incredibly had three losses on the final play of the game. They struggled some early having to replace their QB and losing a key DL in Junior Galette, who was kicked off the squad for what was called a lack of commitment. The Owls were upset by Villanova in their opener and, as expected, they were drilled at Penn State. But Temple has been very impressive the last two weeks in conference play. They hammered Buffalo and followed that up with a solid road win at Eastern Michigan. I like the power in the trenches being established by the Owls, as they have amassed a stellar 440-149 ground game advantage in the two wins. The final 24-12 tally in last week’s Temple victory was a bit misleading, as it was actually a very easy win for the Owls.
I see the key variables on Temple’s side here. They look to have a clear superiority from a purely physical standpoint, and have a great chance to dominate Ball State at the point of attack. It’s a bigger game for the Owls, as they’re trying to get to 3-0 in league play. There’s no distraction with a look ahead game, as non-conference Army is on deck, so I see Temple being very focused for this contest. The Cardinals are forced to travel to an unfamiliar venue, as these teams have never met previously, and they’re doing so off a potentially demoralizing defeat. I see this as a scenario that heavily favors Temple, and I see the Owls as an underrated team right now. So it’s Temple minus the points for this week’s free opinion.
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