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DAVE COKIN'S HARDCORE FOOTBALL 10/14/09

By Dave Cokin
Posted 10/14/2009 at 05:23 AM

There’s never a Saturday without at least a couple of marquee attractions in college football, and this week is no exception. Oklahoma and Texas are gearing up for their annual rivalry duel, and this one is a corker on paper. The two QB’s, Sam Bradford and Colt McCoy, will garner most of the headlines. But I believe this game will be won or lost on the ground rather than through the air. The Sooners and Longhorns have remarkably similar rushing stats on both offense and defense. There’s obviously a ton on the line here. Oklahoma has a 175-42 edge over their five opponents to date. But the Sooners have two one-point losses, to BYU and Miami, and for all intents and purposes, their season is finished if they lose this game. Texas is unbeaten and while a loss would obviously hurt their chances of getting to the mythical title game, they would at the very least still be alive for a BCS bowl even if they fall this weekend. The Sooners were the better program in the early part of this decade and had been dominating the Longhorns. But Texas has now won three of the last four meetings, including last year’s wild 45-35 shootout. I made Texas a two-point favorite for this week’s duel, so I’ll be on the sidelines as far as a play on the game is concerned.

The other center stage attraction for Saturday is at South Bend, where Notre Dame will be attempting to finally break through against a team that has tormented them for the last several years. USC has knocked off the Fighting Irish seven straight times, and the last two have been really ugly, with the Trojans winning by a combined 76-3 tally. I don’t think there’s any question that this is the biggest game on Notre Dame’s slate. Another disastrous loss would likely get Charlie Weis back on the coaching hot seat, at least as far as the media and fans are concerned. A Notre Dame win would absolutely establish them as a BCS contender. That looks like too much to ask of the Irish. Let’s face it, it’s not as though Notre Dame is overwhelming the opposition. Aside from the season-opening wipeout of Nevada, every Notre Dame game has gone right to the wire. The keys here are whether ND can get another big game from QB Jimmy Clausen, who is having a great campaign. And, of course, the Irish defense needs to get a little tighter, particularly against the run. They had a great deal of trouble with the Michigan and Washington ground games, and if the Trojans get rolling overland, I don’t see how Notre Dame will be able to keep pace. I have not made up my mind as to whether I’ll get involved in this game, but if I do play it, I’ll end up giving the points.

There's breaking news here in Las Vegas. I’ve learned that beleaguered head coach Mike Sanford could be out before the end of the season. What I was told is that if and when the Rebels are no longer bowl-eligible, he’ll be relieved of his duties at that point. UNLV is currently 2-4 and they’re off two very ugly losses to Nevada and BYU, with Utah heading into town this weekend. The town is down on the team right now, and only about 26000 showed up for last week’s game, which is a poor turnout considering that the opponent was BYU. Obviously, it behooves Coach Sanford and the Rebels to circle the wagons and put up a big fight this weekend against the Utes, and they then need to take care of business against winless New Mexico. Otherwise, what started off as a very promising season will be completely lost and the Rebels could very well end up the year with an interim coach, according to my sources.

I’ll return on Thursday with a few more previews, and I’ll have my free college play (4-2 so far) in Friday’s blog. Thanks for reading, and feel free to leave your feedback!

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