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Posted 10/15/2009 at 01:20 AM
My free college plays are 4-2 on the season, to go along with a terrific record on my official plays here at VI. Be sure to check back on Friday for this week's free selection.Meanwhile, here’s a look at a couple more of this weekend’s most compelling matchups.
I’ll be very interested to see how Arizona rebounds after blowing what looked to be a sure win last Saturday at Washington. The key play in the game was a pick-six by the Huskies just when it looked as though they were pretty much toast in the game. There’s been loads of discussion as to whether or not the officials missed the play, as the ball appeared to hit both the ground and the Arizona player’s foot before caroming into the waiting arms of a Washington defender, who subsequently ran into the end zone for the winning score. Regardless, the play call itself was a little nuts, as Arizona’s only task at that juncture was to try and run out the clock. Passing on first down was, to put it mildly, peculiar. The Wildcats need to put that tough defeat behind them and focus on another big challenge here, as Stanford is a solid team. But the Cardinal are also off a bad result, as they were pretty well dominated at Oregon State, and the 38-28 final score was a bit misleading. This game should boil down to Stanford’s outstanding ground game against the very solid Arizona rushing defense. The Cardinal are running for better than 200 yards per contest and senior Toby Gerhardt is having a great campaign. But the Wildcats are stingy when it comes to giving ground, allowing less than 100 yards overland per game. Arizona has shown quite a bit of improvement since promoting sophomore Nick Foles to the starting QB role. The money on this game has been pouring in on Stanford. Arizona was a 6? point favorite on Sunday evening, but Cardinal backers have forced the number down to 4?. I have Stanford as the slightly better team on a neutral field. But in battles between good rushing offenses vs. tough rush defenses, I usually lean toward the stoppers. I won’t be involved in this game, but if I had to take a stance, I’d have to say the value at this point is with the home team.
Another outstanding hookup takes place in the Big 10 as Iowa travels to Wisconsin. The Hawkeyes are still unbeaten and their defense has been nothing short of outstanding. Iowa does not have an especially good offense, and the goal for the Badgers here will be to try and turn this into a track meet. Wisconsin is off a very tough loss. They clearly outplayed Ohio State and should have come away from Columbus with a huge road win last week. But two huge blunders on offense were killers as Ohio State scored twice on interceptions, and the Buckeyes also took a kickoff the distance. The stats in the game were almost mind blowing, as Wisconsin held a 22-8 edge in first downs and outgained the Buckeyes by a whopping 368-184 margin. But Ohio State made the plays that mattered and Wisconsin now has to gather themselves off their first loss. The bettors have been all over the Badgers. Iowa opened as a one-point favorite on Sunday night, but the Badgers are now laying a FG. Iowa has been fairly dominant in the series, with five wins and six covers in the last seven meetings. Wisconsin will be eager to avenge last year’s 38-16 loss. The game was much closer than that but the Badgers were -3 in the turnover category and ended up taking one on the chin. The Hawkeyes have also been very solid as underdogs under head coach Kirk Ferentz. I see the Badgers as perhaps having a little more pure talent than Iowa. But I believe the Hawkeyes are the smarter team that’s less prone to mistakes. I think this one is a tossup and I’ll be strictly a spectator. But with the major shift in the number, I’d have to say that the value is now with the Hawkeyes getting a full three points.
Back on Friday with my free play for this week.
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