By Dave Cokin
Posted 10/27/2009 at 02:58 AM

Here’s how I see things breaking down this year in the NBA. I’ll cover the Eastern Conference today, and the West will be featured in Wednesday’s blog.

The Boston Celtics should have clear sailing in the Atlantic. This team is better than it was last year, thanks to a deeper and more talented bench. The Celtics can now go nine-deep and I think they’ve got the best starting lineup in the league…The Toronto Raptors are clearly second best in the division and I think they’re an underrated team. Chris Bosh is in great shape, Hedo Turkoglu is a terrific addition and I really like rookie DeMar DeRozan. If Andrea Bargnani’s late season surge wasn’t a mirage, the Raptors have a chance to be a very good team…I am not high on Philadelphia. I thought letting Andre Miller go was a bad move, and I can’t see Lou Williams as a starting PG. If Elton Brand finds his old form, maybe they can back to the playoffs, but I’m betting against it. Eddie Jordan’s Princeton offense might help camouflage some of the weakness on this team, but I see the 76ers struggling this year…The New York Knicks are simply biding time till next summer, when they will have big bucks available for a major free agent push. For now, Knicks fans will have to enjoy rock steady David Lee, who has emerged as a double-double machine. The rest of the team, aside from Al Harrington and perhaps a healthy Danilo Gallinari, is an assortment of bench types and role players…The New Jersey Nets have a dynamic duo in Brook Lopez and Devin Harris. Courtney Lee is a good young player. The balance of the roster is about as ugly as it gets and I’ll be shocked if the Nets lose fewer than 55 games.

The Cleveland Cavaliers should run away with the Central Division. If Shaquille O’Neal meshes with LeBron James, the Cavs will have a great chance to win it all. Anthony Parker is a good addition to the backcourt, and the bench is set with old pro Zydrunas Ilgauskas and hard working Jamario Moon. My biggest question about the Cavs is whether Mike Brown is the right coach to take them the distance…The Chicago Bulls loom as a distant second in this sector. Derrick Rose is a stud and John Salmons should be solid at shooting guard. The Bulls need Luol Deng to stay healthy and I like the center combo of Joakim Noah and veteran Brad Miller. I’m not a great believer in Tyrus Thomas, though, and the Bulls are going to miss Ben Gordon’s spark. Look for Chicago to be right around .500 again, which will be good enough for the playoffs but that’s about it…The Detroit Pistons are now officially in transition and I don’t see them as a playoff team. Kwame Brown and Charlie Villanueva are starting, and that’s about all one needs to know. The Pistons look very soft on defense, and the offense won’t be good enough to compensate for that liability…The Indiana Pacers will push the ball at every opportunity and Danny Granger should put up spectacular numbers. I don’t see Troy Murphy duplicating last year’s stats, and the backcourt is below average. Indiana probably ought to sacrifice a little scoring and start defensive whiz Dahntay Jones, but regardless, this is a weak team that might now win 35 games…The Milwaukee Bucks are in for a long season. They might be one of the worst shooting teams we’ve seen in years. I have the Bucks as one of the three worst teams in the conference and they will have trouble winning 30 games.

The best race is in the Southeast Division, with little to separate three contenders for the crown. I’m tabbing the Orlando Magic for the top spot, but it won’t be easy. The Magic will miss Hedo Turkoglu’s ability to hit clutch shots and they have to hope Jameer Nelson stays healthy,as Orlando is thin at the point. On the other hand, Vince Carter should be thrilled to be out of New Jersey. I really like the addition of Brandon Bass. He’ll be a big help on the boards and that takes some of the burden off superstar Dwight Howard. The Orlando bench is not a strength, however, and I’m basically only giving them the division off what they accomplished last season…On paper, I’m not so sure Atlanta doesn’t belong on top. In fact, if Josh Smith decides that team basketball is more important than getting on Sportscenter, the Hawks may indeed be the team to beat in the Southeast. Joe Johnson remains underrated, they have a very hungry new addition in Jamal Crawford and while Marvin Williams may never be an All-Star, I think he’s ready to shed the bust tag…The Washington Wizards will be the most improved team in the league and by a wide margin. Gilbert Arenas is ready to go full tilt, Mike Miller and Randy Foye were absolutely stolen from Minnesota, Caron Butler and Antawn Jamison (once he’s healthy) are very talented, and Flip Saunders is a big upgrade as coach. After winning only 19 games last season, I like Washington to have a good shot at 50 wins this year and I would not be shocked to see them grab a first-round home court come playoff time…The Miami Heat are a tough projection. The Heat have a potential distraction with Dwyane Wade in his walk year, and he could actually become a distraction if the Heat struggle early. Michael Beasley is an unknown quantity for now, Jermaine O’Neal is a shell of what he used to be, and I’m not excited by Mario Chalmers at the point. The bench is okay, though, and Miami is likely good enough to eke out a playoff berth…The Charlotte Bobcats came on nicely last year and actually made a run at a playoff spot till they ran out of gas at the finish line. I think the Bobcats can maintain the improvement this season. This team comes to play every night on defense and should be even stronger in that regard with Tyson Chandler manning the middle. Charlotte doesn’t have much offense, however, and they’re in a very difficult division, so they may fall short of a playoff berth again. But they’re finally making progress.

Here’s the way I’m seeding the East.

1. Boston

2. Cleveland

3. Orlando

4. Toronto

5. Atlanta

6. Washington

7. Miami

8. Chicago