By Dave Cokin
Posted 10/28/2009 at 02:48 AM

On to the Western Conference rundown, starting with the Pacific Division, home of the defending champs. There’s simply nothing I can see that prevents the Lakers from absolutely romping to another division title. They’re loaded again, and if Ron Artest commits to being a role player and Andrew Bynum is finally back at 100% after the knee surgeries, LA will be even better than they were last year…The Golden State Warriors are a blast to watch, and I think they will improve substantially on last year’s disappointing 29-53 ledger. Monta Ellis is back at full strength, Anthony Randolph is a potential star, and I’m high on rookie Stephen Curry. Don Nelson can still coach, and I’ve got the Warriors sneaking into the last playoff spot…I’m not impressed with Phoenix. Steve Nash is still great, and while there seems to be a real commitment on the part of the veterans on this team, my belief is that they will deal Amar’e Stoudemire at some point. I know Shaq became a distraction last year, so that’s addition by subtraction. But that also means Channing Frye is now going to log substantial minutes, and that’s not good at all….The LA Clippers will not lose 60 games again this season, but they’re not jumping into the playoff fray, either. Too much depends on Baron Davis, and I’m just not sold that he can stay healthy or committed enough to lead the team. Eric Gordon is a star, but I’m not a big Al Thornton fan, and the big guys are extremely prone to injuries. The Clippers actually look to have a decent bench, so at least they should be mildly respectable, but that’s about it…Sacramento has no chance. No knock on Kevin Martin, but if he’s your best player, you’re in serious trouble. Tyreke Evans is a very talented rookie, but first-year point guards often struggle. The bigs have upside but remain raw at this point. I don’t see the Kings winning more than 20 games.

The San Antonio Spurs head up the Southwest Division, and they’re lined up for a serious run at league title honors. Bringing Richard Jefferson and Antonio McDyess on board gives the Spurs a tremendous starting five, and I would not be at all surprised to see this team deal for veteran bench help later. The window hasn’t closed yet for the Spurs, although I would caution that they are built more for the playoffs than the regular season…The Dallas Mavericks are getting a little long in the tooth, and if they’re ever going to make that big run, it needs to be now. I believe the signing of Shawn Marion indicates that Mavs management has the same idea. Marion gives Dallas way more versatility than they had last season. The Mavs probably aren’t good enough to win this division, but if their legs are still fresh come playoff time, they could be a tough out…New Orleans was the sexy pick in many circles heading into last season, but the Hornets fell back under 50 wins and I don’t see them improving this year. Emeka Okafor is a downgrade from Tyson Chandler, I’ve never been especially high on Morris Peterson as a starting guard and the bench is shaky…The Houston Rockets have a great coach in Rick Adelman, but he’s not a miracle worker. This team is way down. There is no go-to guy on offense and they’re weak at the point. I like Luis Scola to have big year, but I’d be stunned if Houston gets past 30 wins…Memphis is a mess. They have some individually talented guys, but there is just one basketball and I can’t see a team with Allen Iverson, OJ Mayo and Zack Randolph functioning as a unit. Rudy Gay is the best player on the Grizzlies and deserves a trade to a real team.

The Northwest Division should be a great race, but I like Portland to come out on top. The Blazers have a franchise player in Brandon Roy and an emerging star in LaMarcus Aldridge. Andre Miller was a smart pickup and the bench is deep and talented. If Greg Oden figures things out, the Blazers are serious title contenders. Even if he struggles, this is still a very good team…The Utah Jazz will be right there as well. If Carlos Boozer and Andrei Kirilenko can stay happy and healthy, the Jazz are dark horses to make a lengthy post-season run. Utah should get back on the right side of the 50-win plateau…Denver won this division last year, and the Nuggets will contend again. In fact, I really don’t have a concrete reason for dropping them two notches in the division. The only suspect spot on the floor is at shooting guard, and they have to hope Kenyon Martin and Nene stay healthy. Rookie Ty Lawson could emerge as a key reserve, and Chris Anderson is perhaps the league’s best energy boost off the bench…Don’t sleep on Oklahoma City. The Thunder are probably still a year or two away from big things, but they’re clearly on the rise. Kevin Durant is an incredible talent, and the supporting cast is improving. I’m not putting the Thunder into the playoffs this year, but I would not be shocked if they get there…Minnesota is destined to be at the bottom of the division this season, but even the Timberwolves have some upside. Al Jefferson is terrific, and even off the knee injury he should be outstanding. They have a ton of youth on the roster and while there will be loads of rough spots this season, this team may finally have some direction for the future.

Here’s my 1-8 breakdown in the West.

1. Los Angeles Lakers

2. San Antonio Spurs

3. Portland Trailblazers

4. Utah Jazz

5. Dallas Mavericks

6. Denver Nuggets

7. New Orleans Hornets

8. Golden State Warriors