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Posted 10/29/2009 at 03:04 AM
The big game on the college board this week is in the Big 12, as undefeated Texas heads into Stillwater to duel Oklahoma State. I think you’ll see a real division here among those who handicap using various angles and technical trends and those who prefer to focus on the matchup in terms of the personnel. I can tell you with virtual certainty that the tech guys are going to fire on Oklahoma State. If you’re into angles and systems, the Cowboys fit a multitude of power home dog theories. On the other hand, Texas creates a physical problem for Oklahoma State. The Cowboys are not going to be able to run the football here. No one runs on Texas, it’s that simple. The Longhorns have a great rushing defense, so if anyone is going to beat these guys, they’re going to have to do it in the air. But can Texas run on Oklahoma State? I’m not so sure they can. The one flaw for the Longhorns is that they’re not loaded with speedy backs, and the Cowboys are also pretty tough against the run. I think the situation favors the home dog. It’s an absolutely huge game for Oklahoma State. This game goes a long way toward indicating whether the Cowboys are finally at an elite level, or whether they’re still in the good by not great category. As for Texas, aside from 2005 when they ran the table, they’ve always managed to have that one pothole on their slate that flattens them, and this could well be it. Texas has owned the series, and I can’t fade them as I think they’re still the more proven entity. But I have a suspicion that this is going to be a real battle, and although I will personally not play this game, I’m leaning to Oklahoma State with the points, although I like the Longhorns to win the game straight up.
The other headliner is USC-Oregon, and you know Autzen Stadium will be an absolute loony bin for this contest. Oregon has raced right back into the BCS hunt since the opening week disaster at Boise State. The Ducks bear little in common with the team that lost to the Broncos and was lucky to slip past Purdue. As for USC, I have said all along that this is the “weakest” edition of the Trojans in the past several years. I use that term loosely, as they’re still a very powerful team. But I do not think they’re as dominating as recent editions and I think the results to date bear that out. There’s no doubt in my mind that Oregon is good enough to win this game at home. But there’s also no disputing that the Trojans just don’t lose the big conference battles. I don’t see Oregon being at all intimidated, but I still believe USC has a slight mental edge coming in. I just don’t know what to do with the side in this hookup, as I can’t even make what i feel is a decent case for either team. But I do think it could turn into a shootout, so call it a lean to the Over. But it’s strictly a lean, so proceed with caution unless you have a strong take on your own.
I’m back on Friday with this week’s free college play.
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