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Posted 11/19/2009 at 05:30 AM
As always on Thursday, a preview of a pair of marquee Saturday hookups on the college gridiron. I’ve got looks at the annual rivalry duel between Ohio State and Michigan, as well as the crucial PAC-10 tilt between Oregon and Arizona.
Ohio State is headed to the Rose Bowl after squeezing out an exciting OT win at home last week over Iowa. The Buckeyes continue to be a tough team to figure. They’ve had a few really solid efforts, with the very strong showing two weeks ago at Penn State the clear cut highlight. But they were extremely lucky to win over Wisconsin, got outplayed badly by Purdue, and really should not have been so hard pressed to get past a beat up Iowa entry last week. Plus, what looked at the time to be a well played loss to USC doesn’t look all that sensational anymore. But the bottom line is that the Buckeyes are, deserving or not, making plans to spend early January in Pasadena.
Michigan was 4-0 to start the season. They have subsequently garnered only one win, and that was against Delaware State. The Wolverines now need to score the upset here to get a bowl bid. But the fact is, this is Michigan’s bowl game. Beleaguered head coach Rich Rodriguez will enjoy a much easier winter if he can beat the Buckeyes. If not, it’s a hugely disappointing 5-7 campaign that sees the Wolverines go down yet again in the one game that matters most to their fans.
The spot clearly favors Michigan. Rivalry game, home dog that wants this more than anything else, and a road favorite off an overtime win that got them a major bowl bid. There’s no way I can play Ohio State in this scenario. So, it’s Michigan or pass for me, and I’m definitely leaning toward the latter option. My concern with the Wolverines is that they’re playing with very little confidence right now, the defense has been abysmal as they slumped, and the coach is blaming everyone but himself for the team’s failures. Plus, Ohio State has overcome poor scheduling dynamics in this series on more than one occasion to get the win and cover. It sure looks like a game to simply stay away from. Just because the situation is highly favorable to one side doesn’t mean that side gets the money. So, call it just a lean to Michigan for me.
Arizona is 6-3 on the season, but they could easily be 8-1. They were hurt by an officiating mistake and some very questionable late game play calling in what should have been a win at Washington. Last week, the Wildcats were driving for a game winning FG or TD at Cal and killed themselves with a stupid penalty. The Bears got a fluke TD to finish off the Wildcats, but this was again a game Arizona could have easily won.
Oregon an be a remarkably dominating team at times. But they have also had some issues away from home. They lost at Boise State, the win at UCLA was not really all that impressive, you can argue the win at Washington was not as dominating as the score indicates, and the Ducks got destroyed at Stanford.
I think the number is a little high for this game, as Arizona has been right there in every game. But I’m troubled by the fact that the Wildcats have managed to find ways to lose games they should have won. Clearly, they are a team that has some trouble closing the show. But the stat sheet says that Arizona has the ability to slow down the Oregon running game, and if they can at least contain that dimension of the Quack Attack, ‘Zona should have a good chance to win this game and stay in the hunt for the Rose Bowl. It’s not a strong opinion, but I’m considering taking the points with Arizona.
I’ll return tomorrow with my free college play for this week.
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