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Posted 09/06/2008 at 06:55 PM
Since we do not offer UFC selections (a point of contention between the marketing staff and myself), I will offer my UFC 88: Breakthrough selections here. I've been covering the sport for VegasInsider.com since UFC 43 in June of 2003.
CHUCK LIDDELL -275
Liddell, a former college wrestler, is the best in mixed martial arts at dictating the style of a fight. Many wrestlers have tried to take him down in the past, but 'The Iceman' has the best sprawl defense to keep fights standing. When opponents have been able to take him down, Liddell has been able to quickly get back up and use his strength which is striking.
Rashad Evans is also a former college wrestler with Michigan State who wins by taking his opponents down. Instead of ground and pound, some critics see him using a 'lay and pray' where he gets dominant positioning and then wins a decision. Evans is nowhere near the striker Liddell is although he does have some knockout victories, but this is a bad matchup stylistically for the winner of The Ultimate Fighter 2. Liddell by second-round TKO.
MATT HAMILL +210
This is actually a fight between a pair of friends, as Rich Franklin hired Matt Hamill a couple years ago to help him with his wrestling for a couple of upcoming fights. This fight is taking place at light heavyweight (205 pounds), with Franklin moving up in weight since he's unable to overtake middleweight champion Anderson Silva.
Franklin, outside of the Silva fights, dominated the middleweight division because he was physically bigger than every fighter except for Yushin Okami. Franklin does not have a size advantage in this spot, and will actually be the smaller fighter inside the octagon. Expect Hamill to control the action, Franklin has an advantage in striking but the biggest advantage in this fight is Hamill's ground game. Expect a close fight with Hamill prevailing by decision. This is an underdog you have to take at this price, which should be around -$1.80 vs. +$1.50.
NATE MARQUARDT -145
This figures to be a very even matchup between well rounded fighters. However, I like Marquardt to prevail because he's bigger, stronger and a better grappler. Marquardt's only UFC setbacks have been to Anderson Silva and a controversial split-decision setback to Thales Leites. Expect a close contest, but with Marquardt prevailing on the judges' scorecards.
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