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Posted 02/21/2009 at 02:44 PM
I'm really not that excited about the UFC 95 card, but the good news is that it will be showing on Spike TV Saturday night. I consider this one of the weaker UFC cards, but the good news is I see major value in the main event.
While most of the fights feature major 'chalk,' I really like Joe 'Daddy' Stevenson as a $2.80 underdog in the main event against Diego 'Nightmare' Sanchez. These two fighters won the first two seasons of The Ultimate Fighter, but Stevenson has remained in the lightweight division. Sanchez actually won the first season as a middleweight, beating Kenny Florian who is now also a lightweight. However, this is Sanchez's first attempt at fighting at 155 pounds, and fighters usually struggle their first attempt at a lower weight. I think Diego will be a beast in this weight division down the road, but will suffer a setback in this matchup.
Plus, I think Stevenson has slight advantages in a couple of areas and getting him as a $2.80 underdog is just too good to pass up. 'Daddy' was outclassed in his title shot against BJ 'The Prodigy' Penn, and is just 1-2 his last three fights. I see a back-and-forth war in this contest, with equal action happening standing up and on the ground. Both fighters are accomplished wrestlers, but I see Stevenson pulling off a split-decision victory.
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