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Posted 04/18/2009 at 04:17 PM
Since we do not offer mixed martial arts selections on our site, I have been giving my UFC picks for free. Just one way to stimulate the economy, and there is some value on the UFC 97: Redemption card from Montreal, Canada. I think this card is a pretty solid effort (at least on paper) despite having a main event that is such a mismatch. Now let's take a closer look at some of the key fights.
ANDERSON 'THE SPIDER' SILVA -600
There is not a lot of value taking a $6.00 favorite, and this fight with Thales Leites actually opened with Silva listed as the $5.50 favorite. 'The Spider' has won his first eight fights with the UFC, and can make history inside the octagon with a victory in this spot. No figher has ever won nine consecutive fights inside the octagon, and only Hall of Famer Royce Gracie, Silva and Jon Fitch have ever won eight in a row.
Silva has the decided advantage standing up with his length and Muay Thai skills, but Leites has an advantage on the ground. Even though both fighters are black belts in Brazilian jiu-jitsu, Leites is a bit more advanced when the action goes to the mat. Leites can also take a punch (or knee) as was evidenced in his split-decision victory over Nate Marquardt. The Brazilian took an illegal knee to the head from one of the division's hardest hitters, and could have won the fight on a disqualification but went back to work to capture the victory on the card.
This will be a big step up in competition for Leites, who will be game against one of the best pound-for-pound fighters on the planet. Expect Silva to retain his title and set UFC history with a second-round technical knockout.
CHUCK 'THE ICEMAN' LIDDELL -175
Both fighters have some question marks coming into this contest. Chuck Liddell has lost three of his last four fights, twice by knockout. The former UFC light heavyweight champion is now 39 years old, and is on the downside of his career.
Mauricio 'Shogun' Rua is just 27 years old, but has had two knee operations and had to deal with a broken arm since his dominating days in Japan's Pride. Rua is just a shell of his old, dominating self after the knee injuries, and has shown absolutely no gas tank during his two fights with the UFC. 'Shogun' was submitted by Forrest Griffin after gassing in the third round, and only beat Mark Coleman his last fight because Coleman gassed worse than Rua.
I said on Las Vegas radio earlier this week that any MMA fan should check out videos of Rua's fights when he was in Pride, because he was the best 205-pound fighter on the planet in its strongest and deepest division. However, I fear that cardio will come into play once again and Liddell will record a second-round TKO victory via strikes.
BRIAN 'ALL AMERICAN' STANN +150
Brian 'All American' Stann is a live dog in this spot for a couple of reasons. I usually shy away from fighters appearing in the UFC for the first time, and that was evidenced in WEC's welterweight champion Carlos 'Natural Born Killer' Condit's loss earlier this month to Martin Kampmann.
Stann is 28 years old and sports a 6-1 MMA record, and was the UFC's light heavyweight champion before losing his belt to Steve Cantwell. 'All American' is also a Marine who served in Iraq, so bigger crowds and pressure won't affect him as much as others making their UFC debut.
Krzysztof 'The Polish Experiment' Soszynsk was a member of The Ultimate Fighter 8, and has been fighting as a pro since 2003 including a stint in the International Fight League. This should be a good matchup (as the odds suggest), but I see a tenative first round and eventual decision for Stann.
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