Posted 04/13/2011 at 02:52 PM
In normal plate races, it's not a good idea to spend too much on matchups because of the volatile nature of the track that doesn't have any favorites. The track will take down a driver that doesn't have any DNF's just like it will someone who routinely has them...............This years race at Talladega will be even more unpredictable than the Daytona 500 just because the restrictor plate is a bit smaller than the one used there. We have no data to go off of and even practices won't be very telling............This will be just about as big of a crap shoot as we'll see all season until they race again with plates on..........Regardless of who is favored, take any, and all plus money you can in matchups. There really is no edge and each side should basically be -115 to -110 and no more..................I posted a couple of qualifying matchups that seemed interesting just because of the changes for this race that made past Q efforts -- which the lines are based off of -- worth little.