Posted 08/06/2011 at 06:38 PM
There is a great possibility that Denny Hamlin could be devalued for this race based on his poor practice times which saw him only 39th and 24th quickest in Friday's two sessions. Hamlin came in as the 4-to-1 favorite based on his four Pocono wins and 9.3 average finish on the track, but practice times are what most of the adjusted odds to win and matchups will be based off of....................Although only 24th fastest in the final practice session on single lap times, if you look deeper into the speeds, you'll see that Hamlin was the fastest on average lap times around the track during his 35 laps runs, which could be argued as a more vital stat because Pocono tends to have long green flag runs. Those who can keep the speeds up the fastest late in runs will be more likely to find themselves near the front at the end of runs.............I'm still alarmed by Hamlin not having fast single lap times, but I'm inclined to believe that his team was trying to get something right with the gear ratio, which played a role in the first race for the first time at Pocono since 2004..................Before the practice session, Hamlin was a huge favorite over everyone. Now, he may be devalued which in turn will make him a must play in most matchups because there really isn't anyone that stands out in this race............Drivers that have tempted me all season that I have failed with, Mark Martin and Jeff Burton, have caught my eye again and I will look to play them in matchups if not too overpriced.