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Posted 08/19/2008 at 07:58 PM
NFL SEASON WIN TOTAL
I am not a big fan of future wagering because 1) you have to tie-up your money for the entire football season and 2) you can’t get as much value as you used to. Despite this, you can usually find a good play or two in NFL season win totals.
I typically like to find teams to play “under” the posted season win total because injuries always happen, both major and minor, and this always helps the “under” throughout the long season. Somebody has to really post a bad number for me to bet a team “over” their season win total; and that almost never happens.
Taking a look at this year’s NFL schedule I spotted one of the toughest I’ve seen in many years. Somebody in the NFL’s scheduling office must have it in for the Pittsburgh Steelers. The Steelers have to play the tough NFC East division with games on the road at Philadelphia and Washington (Monday night) plus they will have to host both Dallas (last year 13-3) and the defending Super Bowl champion New York Giants.
Pittsburgh must also face the best four teams in the AFC with games versus New England and Jacksonville on the road and Indianapolis and San Diego at home. Additionally, the Steelers have a tough road games at pesky Tennessee and vastly improving Cleveland.
The Steelers did well in this year’s draft by getting RB Rashard Mendenhall from Illinois and highly regarded WR Limas Sweed from Texas but lost-long time offensive linemen Alan Fanaca to the New York Jets via free agency. Last year pass blocking was a huge problem for Pittsburgh and this will not improve with the departure of Fanaca.
One last thing. Except for the Oakland Raiders the Steelers get the worst grief from the officials in the league. Setting aside the Immaculate Reception and the ’05 Super Bowl the boys in black and gold never get calls (see last season’s playoff game against Jacksonville for example).
So an extremely tough schedule plus an average offensive line and some young skill players equals a very good chance that the Steelers won’t win ten games this season – though they may still win their division at 8-8.
That’s my take on an NFL win total play that has some value. Good luck and see you at the window.
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