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At the Gate - Friday
August 26, 2010
By Mike Dempsey
VegasInsider.com
W e turned a modest +15% +ROI with my top picks on Thursday, four winners that paid $4.30, $2.50, $7.10, and $6.90. We knocked down four recommended exactas: $14.40, $20.60, $52.00, and $41.20.
It was not the most exciting day of the meeting, but we have plenty to look forward to as we head into the weekend.
Friday’s card features three stakes including the $200,000 Bernard Baruch (G2) at nine furlongs on the inner turf course.
I have my eyes on trying to beat the likely short priced favorite Get Stormy, who has not won at the distance, although he has won three of his four starts over the Spa turf.
Saturday’s Travers Day card features 13 races including an all stakes $1 million guaranteed Pick 4, which will be anchored by the $1 million Shadwell Travers (G1).
A deep and talented field of eleven will line up in the Travers including Kentucky Derby (G1) winner Super Saver, Jim Dandy (G2) winner A Little Warm, and the runner up from all three Triple Crown races this spring, Ice Box, First Dude, and Fly Down.
On Sunday, the Personal Ensign (G1) will feature an intriguing match up between the 2009 Horse of the Year Rachel Alexandra and the very talented Life At Ten.
The weather was lousy early in the week, but it looks as if it will be beautiful all weekend. The turf course was labeled as “good” on Thursday, and should continue to dry out and likely will be firm by post time today.
To purchase my full card report for Saratoga that includes analysis, selections, fair odds, and wagering recommendations for today, click here.
Here is the opening race from Saratoga to get our day off to a good start:
SAR Race 1 The Charles Dowd (1:00 ET) #1 Groomedforvictory 4/1 #6 Driven by Success 1/1 #2 Uncle T Seven 5/1 #3 Make Note 6/1
Analysis: #1 Groomedforvictory was beaten just a neck and a head last out when third in the Even Shipman in a good effort. The gelding was a bit rank early fighting the rider and was caught behind a wall of horses as they turned for home and finished up well when bumping with a foe in the stretch. His last three wins came at a one-turn mile, so the cut back to seven furlongs here should suit.
#6 Driven by Success was the beaten chalk last out, dueling for the early lead and no match for the winner over a speed friendly racing strip in the Morrissey. This guy won two and three back with triple digit Beyers. He has landed in the exacta in 4 of 5 trips over the Spa main track and may just have bounced last out. The price is going to be on the light side, so we'll try to beat him for the top spot.
Wagering WIN: #1 to win at 3/1 or better. EX: 1,6 / 1,2,3,6 TRI: 1,6 / 1,2,3,6 / 1,2,3,4,6
Today's Featured Race of the Day from Saratoga:
SAR Race 9 The Bernard Baruch Hcp G2 (1:00 ET) #8 Radical Sabbatical 8/1 #2 Whatsthescript 4/1 #5 Get Stormy 9/5 #3 Sudden War 8/1
Analysis: #8 Radical Sabbatical raced evenly last out in the Fourstardave (G2), checking in fifth. The gelding regressed a bit off a hard fought neck win two back against Alw-3 optional claimers in his first go off a eight month layoff. The gelding has put in a couple of good works since his last outing and he looks as if he wants to go nine furlongs. He looks like he is sitting on a good one and should be a decent price in this spot.
#2 Whatsthescript was fourth in the Fourstardave and also makes his third start of his current form cycle. This guy is winless since '08 but he has been facing tougher and this is not a deep group of Grade 2 foes here.
#5 Get Stormy has won 3 of 4 over the Spa turf and tough to knock a runner that has won 6 of his last 7 starts overall. However, he has not won at nine furlongs and we are going to be looking at a very short price.
Wagering WIN: #8 to win at 9/2 or better. EX: 2,8 / 2,3,5,8 TRI: 2,8 / 2,3,5,8 / 2,3,5,7,8
Live Longshots: These are price plays for exotic players looking to find a couple of extra contenders to use in their trifecta and superfecta wagers. Or for those with smaller bankrolls, you might want to get in a small win-place wager.
Saratoga R2: #6 Fortunate Run 8/1 R5: #8 Holidayatthefarm 8/1 R6: #11 Mr. Madison 8/1 R6: #3 Saratoga Seven 20/1 R7: #8 Peahi 8/1 R8: #9 Tudor King 8/1 R8: #3 Follia 8/1 R9: #8 Radical Sabbatical 8/1 R9: #3 Sudden War 8/1 R10: #6 Elleway 10/1
Good luck today!
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