Afleet Express, who came into yesterday’s Shadwell Travers (G1) off a third place finish behind A Little Warm and Miner’s Reserve in the Jim Dandy (G2) turned the tables, holding on to win a photo over Fly Down in a thrilling finish, returning $16.00.
The late blooming son of Afleet Alex is trained by Jimmy Jerkens and owned by Gainsway Farm and Cherry Martin.
The Nick Zito trained Fly Down came with a five wide rally around the far turn and look as if he was going to sweep by the field, taking a brief lead in the stretch, but lost a tough head bob.
It was a tough beat for my bankroll as well.
My top picks Rapport ($6.90) and Rightly So ($11.40) won the first two legs of the $1 million guaranteed Pick 4, then my second choice Discreetly Mine won the King’s Bishop (G1), paying $4.10 as the short priced favorite.
I had my top three picks in the final leg, A Little Warm, Fly Down, and Trappe Shot.
A Little Warm started to fade early, but Fly Down caught my eye as they headed into the far turn and looked like he was a sure winner.
The Pick 4 payoff with Fly Down was paying $460.00, and I have to be honest, I was counting my money.
That was a tough, tough beat.
Perhaps we can snag the Late Pick 4 today, which will likely only pay decent if we can somehow beat Rachel Alexandra.
To purchase my full card report for Saratoga that includes analysis, selections, fair odds, and wagering recommendations for today click here.
Here is the opening race from Saratoga to get our day off to a good start:
SAR Race 1 Alw $52,000N2L (1:00 ET)
#3 Devils Humor 5/2
#6 Cinco de Mayo Mio 7/2
#5 Zermatt 7/2
#2 Beautician 3/1
Analysis: #3 Devils Humor makes her first start since a very impressive debut at Fair Grounds back in March where she trounced the field by five lengths as the favorite. That effort was flattered as four of the runners she beat that day came back to graduate in their next starts. She has had a steady string of works since arriving in New York and has the pedigree to be a nice one. She is by Distorted Humor out of the stakes winner Fleet Renee ($658K). This is not an easy spot for her return but still appears to have a ton of upside potential.
#6 Cinco de Mayo Mio came off a two month break with a game second last out over a wet track in her local debut. She caught a tough group, as two came out of the race to beat Alw-1 foes in their next starts while the winner Ash Zee came back to finish fourth in the Test (G1). A repeat of her last effort puts her in the mix here.
Wagering
WIN: #3 to win at 2/1 or better.
EX: 3,6 / 2,3,5,6
TRI: 3,6 / 2,3,5,6 / 2,3,5,6,7
Today's Featured Race of the Day from Saratoga:
SAR Race 10 The Personal Ensign G1 (5:56 ET)
#1 Miss Singhsix 10/1
#2 Rachel Alexandra 2/5
#4 Life At Ten 5/2
#3 Persistently 20/1
Analysis: Neither #2 Rachel Alexandra or #4 Life At Ten are going to offer any value, so let's take a small stab with #1 Miss Singhsix, who finished second in the Del 'Cap (G2) last out. The filly came with a four wide run but could not catch the loose on the lead winner #4 Life At Ten, who had things her own way that day. Today is appears that Rachel is quick enough she is going top be on the lead, with #4 Life At Ten doing the chasing. If that happens, we might be able to get the chaser to regress, and our top pick can turn the tables with a late rally. She will need Rachel to toss in a clunker or perhaps not want to get the 1 1/4 miles to pull off the upset, but if we get around 8/1 I am willing to take a look.
#2 Rachel Alexandra needs to run well and perhaps win or we may not see her in the Breeders' Cup. She has won her last two starts, and while she still does not seem to be up to her '09 form, her figures stack up pretty close. I don't think Calvin will mess around with her main rival in here and may try to snag the early lead and go gate to wire.
Wagering
WIN: #1 to win at 8/1 or better.
EX: 1,2 / 1,2,4
TRI: no play
Live Longshots:
These are price plays for exotic players looking to find a couple of extra contenders to use in their trifecta and superfecta wagers. Or for those with smaller bankrolls, you might want to get in a small win-place wager.
Saratoga
R2: #7 Social Statement 8/1
R4: #6 Proven Right 8/1
R4: #5 Much Fanfare 12/1
R6: #5 Devonshire 15/1
R6: #7 Midnight Mass 12/1
R7: #7 Sound Chaser 10/1
R7: #1 Federal Hill 12/1
R8: #1 Irish Lady 8/1
R9: #6 Ziegfeld 8/1
R9: #2 Raven Hawk 8/1
R10: #1 Miss Singhsix 10/1
R11: #9 Silver Birch 15/1
Good luck today!
