Mother Nature has been fairly kind to Saratoga this summer although we lost more than a dozen turf races due to rain.
With just six days left of the meeting, the Labor Day weekend is approaching, as is Hurricane Earl.
As a resident of Florida, I know more than I care to know about hurricanes, spending nearly two weeks working off my laptop and a generator in my carport after Hurricane Ivan.
Earl seems to have its sights on the northeast coast on between Friday and Saturday, and that is making my very nervous we could have our closing weekend at the Spa interrupted.
Saturday’s card includes the $750,000 Woodward (G1), with Quality Road the likely favorite. Others pointing toward the race include Arcodoro, Convocation, Indian Dance, Mine That Bird, Mythical Power, Tranquil Manner, and Haynesfield.
We will have to keep an eye on The Weather Channel starting tomorrow, but today we have a $443,274 Pick 6 carryover to worry about.
I am not sure I will hit it, but I will predict it will not carryover until tomorrow. I had a difficult time coming up with many live longshots to throw on my ticket.
One of the toughest races on the card is the feature, the $70,000 P.G. Johnson, which drew a field of nine two-year-old fillies who will go long on the turf.
Only four of the nine fillies have won on turf, and five of them are stretching out from a sprint, making it one of the trickiest races in the Pick 6 sequence.
To purchase my full card report for Saratoga that includes analysis, selections, fair odds, and wagering recommendations for today click here.
Here is the opening race from Saratoga to get our day off to a good start:
SAR Race 1 Clm $12,500 (1:00 ET)
#7 Motown Shuffle 6/1
#1 Spanky Fischbein / #1a Surfing Ian 5/1
#3 Ramsgate 3/1
#5 King Andrew 7/2
Analysis: #7 Motown Shuffle stalked the early pace and faded to finish sixth last out for this tag. The winner of the race was Aquino, who came back to beat $20K non-winners of three in his next outing on Aug. 22. The gelding was claimed out of his last effort by the RRod barn that is 7 for 16 (with a +ROI) first off the claim. The gelding was good enough to win for a $25K tag back in May at Churchill Downs. Look for the barn to work its magic and the 6/1 ML looks more than fair.
#1a Surfing Ian got the job done as our top pick last out in a photo at better than 10/1. The gelding has won three in a row and comes in here very sharp. His entrymate #1 Spanky Fischbein was a nice two year old, taking a stake and landing in the exacta in five others including the Count Fleet. It has been downhill since but he put in a decent effort last out in a fourth place finish after stumbling out of the gate. He is capable at this level as he makes his second start off a nine-month layoff.
Wagering
WIN: #7 to win at 7/2 or better.
EX: 1,7 / 1,3,5,7
TRI: 1,7 / 1,3,5,7 / 1,3,5,7,8
Today's Featured Race of the Day from Saratoga:
SAR Race 8 The P.G. Johnson (4:55 ET)
#9 Believe in A.P. 8/1
#6 Lauren Byrd 7/2
#4 Fancy Point 12/1
#3 Dos Lunas 3/1
Analysis: #9 Believe in A.P. put in a solid effort for the Dutrow barn in her first start on turf. The filly raced a bit greenly racing in between foes heading down the backstretch, made a good middle move to get into the mix and finished up well for third, beaten just a half length for the top spot. She should move forward off that effort and has a nice pedigree. She is by A.P. Indy out of the stakes winner I Believe in You ($244K), who has dropped a couple of winners including four-time turf winner I Believe in Me ($174K). Leparoux sticks and we should catch a fair price on this filly.
#6 Lauren Byrd came with a four wide rally and got up late to break her maiden in her debut at Belmont Park at six furlongs on the turf. The runner up in the race was Arch Support, who came back to graduate in her next outing on July 30 here. The Pletcher filly has enough pedigree to handle the stretch out. She is by Arch out of a Smart Strike mare that has dropped three turf winners, top earner Hudson Steele ($171K) a stakes winner over the weeds.
#4 Fancy Point checked in fourth in her debut after a troubled trip. The filly was bumped coming out of the gate, was stuck behind a wall of horses approaching the quarterpole, was angled to the inside where she split rivals and flattened out late. She should appreciate the switch to turf. She has three sibs that have won on turf. Worth tossing in the mix here at a generous price.
Wagering
WIN: #9 to win at 9/2 or better.
EX: 6,9 / 3,4,6,9
TRI: 6,9 / 3,4,6,9 / 3,4,6,8,9
Live Longshots:
These are price plays for exotic players looking to find a couple of extra contenders to use in their trifecta and superfecta wagers. Or for those with smaller bankrolls, you might want to get in a small win-place wager.
Saratoga
R2: #3 Blessed Moon 8/1
R2: #6 Glackety 8/1
R8: #9 Believe in A.P. 8/1
R8: #4 Fancy Point 12/1
Good luck today!
