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At the Gate - Thursday
 
 
 

The news for horseplayers that wager on California is not good, as the legislature in the state approved a bill that will increase takeout on exotic bets.

The tax increase will be 2% on daily double and exacta wagering (from 20.68% to 22.68%), and 3% on trifecta and superfecta wagering (from 20.68% to 23.68%).

The expected additional revenue will go to increase purses, and racing officials expect to see a $25 to $30 million windfall annually.

Handle across the country is already on a downward trend, and by taking an additional $25 million out of horseplayers pockets will begin the fall of racing in California.

Horseplayers should be outraged about this increase, which amounts to about a 10% additional tax.

There is no other business that would increase pricing when business is bad. Studies have shown that increasing takeout is detrimental to handle in the long run.

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However, that has not stopped the California Horse Racing Board from signing off on this bill, and now it goes on to Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger, who is certain to sign the bill into law,

This is a very disappointing development for horseplayers.

Once the takeout increase goes into effect, other racing jurisdictions will be watching closely to see how handle is affected.

Raising takeout is bad for the game, and any track that is increasing the costs of horseplayers should be avoided.

Make sure you are aware of how much the takeout is at the tracks you are playing. It can make the difference between being a winning or a losing horseplayer.

Soon enough, horse racing in California will be dead to me.

To purchase my full card report for Saratoga that includes analysis, selections, fair odds, and wagering recommendations for today, click here.

Here is the second race (the opener is a jump race) from Saratoga to get our day off to a good start:

SAR Race 2 Md $35,000 (1:35 ET)
#8 Wascally Rabbit 4/1
#3 Camillus Drive 5/1
#1 Halo Doctor Joe / #1a Joes Blazing Aaron 7/2
#5 Wildcat Stevie 5/1

Analysis: #8 Wascally Rabbit was badly outrun in his debut while racing greenly, then showed a major improvement last out with a runner up finish when dropping in for a tag for the first time. The colt prompted the early pace from the outside, battled for the lead in the stretch showing more greeness, and could not go with the winner late while nearly three lengths clear of the rest of the field. Only one runner has come out of the race to run back, fifth place finisher Cheeky Mama a next out grad for a $35K tag on Aug. 25.

#3 Camillus Drive is a $52K Ocala purchase making his debut for the Rice barn that is 15% winners with first time starters. Rice is 3 for 16 with firsters here at this meet. The gelding is by Macho Uno (15% winners with debut runners) out of a Silver Buck mare, her first foal to race. The works are not jumping off the page, but Ramon takes the call.

Wagering
WIN: #8 to win at 5/2 or better.
EX: 3,8 / 1,3,5,8
TRI: 3,8 / 1,3,5,8 / 1,3,5,6,8

Today's Featured Race of the Day from Saratoga:

SAR Race 9 The Riskaverse (5:31 ET)
#6 Doe Run 8/1
#4 Sea Road 6/1
#2 Lisa's Booby Trap 5/2
#5 Khancord Kid 6/1

Analysis: #6 Doe Run came off a two-month break with a game runner up finish versus Alw-1 foes. The winner of that race was It's Tea Time, who came back to win the Lake Placid (G3) on Aug. 22. The filly appears to be heading in the right direction and looks to be sitting on a good one here in her second start off the short break. The Phipps barn is having a tough meet, 0 for 17, but the former Mott assistant appears to have some live runners entered this week. Decent value if we catch most of the 8/1 ML.

#4 Sea Road made a good late rally to win the Hattie Moseley last out. The third place finisher in the race was Barracks Road, who came back to win the Ontario Coleen at Woodbine on Aug. 28 at Woodbine. The Hough filly has won 4 of 6 on turf including a pair of stakes wins. She fits well in this spot.

Wagering
WIN: #6 to win at 9/2 or better.
EX: 4,6 / 2,4,5,6
TRI: 4,6 / 2,4,5,6 / 1,2,4,5,6

Live Longshots:
These are price plays for exotic players looking to find a couple of extra contenders to use in their trifecta and superfecta wagers. Or for those with smaller bankrolls, you might want to get in a small win-place wager.

Saratoga
R4: #10 Silver La Belle 12/1
R6: #2 Emerald Beech 8/1
R7: #6 Scoville 8/1
R9: #6 Doe Run 8/1
R10: #1 Mazara Del Vallo 8/1

Good luck today!

  
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Mike covers the New York racing circuit (Aqueduct, Belmont Park, and Saratoga) year round as well as Keeneland, Churchill Downs, the Triple Crown, and the Breeders’ Cup.

For the third time in the last five years VI subscribers using Mike’s Reports had the winner of the Kentucky Derby. In 2011 Mike nailed Animal Kingdom with his top pick, the upset winner paying $43.20 to win, $19.60 to place & $13.00 to show!

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Street Sense was his top pick in 2007, the winner returning $11.80, $6.40, and $4.60.

No handicapper in the industry works harder to bring you analysis that produces profits at the track!

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