|
|
At the Gate - Thursday
October 4, 2012
By Mike Dempsey
VegasInsider.com
The rains that fell on Tuesday forced the shift of five turf races to the main track yesterday at Belmont Park, and we have more of the same today.
There is a chance of more rain on Thursday, and the races have already been moved to the main track, but I was prepared today and my selections are for the main track.
There is more rain in the forecast starting around an hour before post time, so I expect the main track to be wet.
Things improve on Friday, and there is just a 40% chance of showers on Saturday on a day with three graded stakes that will have Breeders' Cup implications.
Dullahan is the 4-5 morning line favorite in the $400,000 Jamaica (G1) as he makes his final prep for the Breeders' Cup.
The question is which race is he prepping for?
He is a three time Grade 1 winner, but all on polytrack. He is 0 for 3 on turf in his career, but a strong performance might lead his trainer Dale Romans to think about sticking on turf in either the Breeders' Cup Mile or Turf.
However, it appears the connections are leaning toward going in the Breeders' Cup Classic even though the colt is winless in six trips over conventional dirt.
Trainer Todd Pletcher swept last weekend's juvenile stakes at Belmont Park, and he has another shot of doing the same this weekend.
Pletcher will send out the 2-5 morning line favorite Dreaming of Julia in the $400,000 Frizette (G1) for two-year-old fillies, and will send out three of the seven participants in the $400,000 Foxwoods Champagne (G1).
He will saddle recent maiden winner Archwarrior (5-2), a well touted juvenile that was drilled in the betting in his debut, Hopeful (G1) winner Shanghai Bobby (3-1), and maiden winner Micromanage (5-1).
The biggest threat to the Pletcher trio appears to be west coast shipper Goldencents (3-1), a good looking maiden winner in his debut at Del Mar over polytrack for trainer Doug O'Neill.
I will have selections and analysis of all the stakes races from Belmont Park as well as Keeneland in Saturday's Best Plays Report.
Purchase my Monthly Package and receive an entire month of Belmont Park action and my weekend Keeneland and Best Plays Reports for just $99.95. Belmont Park runs five days a week with Monday and Tuesday dark days.
To purchase my full card report for Belmont Park for Thursday click here.
Here is today's opening from Belmont Park to get the day off to a good start:
BEL Race 1 Md Sp Wt (12:50 ET)
2 M Six 4-1
9 Volatile Markets 7-2
8 Smooth Bert 5-2
7 Sunlover 6-1
Analysis: M Six was off a beat slow in his debut and was not much of a threat going a route of ground on the grass at the Spa. He took some play, sent off at 7-2 in a field of nine, but more of the barn's two year olds were taking betting action and many of them won. The colt draws the rail here and figures to move forward with a race under his belt. He seems just as suited pedigree wise for the main track and is bred to like a wet track. He is by Medaglia d'Oro out of the multiple turf stakes winner J'ray ($969K). Pletcher is 35% winners (with a +ROI) with second out maidens.
Volatile Markets is a $60K purchase making his debut for the Violette barn that is 15% winners with firsters. The colt is by Rockport Harbor (10% winners) out of Poncho Villa mare that has dropped one other foal to race, 1 for 14 Tis of Thee ($17K). The colt debuts with lasix and sports a couple of quick works on the morning tab.
Wagering
WIN: #2 to win at 3-1 or better.
EX: 2,9 / 2,7,8,9
TRI: 2,9 / 2,7,8,9 / 2,4,7,8,9
Today's Featured Race of the Day from Belmont Park:
BEL Race 8 Clm $20,000B (4:34 ET)
13 Sasta Go Lucky 12-1
12 Elusive Jozi 2-1
14 Cat's Got Legs 3-1
9 Aba Dabbler 7-2
Analysis: Sasta Go Lucky is a MTO only runner that is going to go off at a decent price. The filly was outrun last out in a tenth pale finish against state bred Alw1 optional claimers on the main track here. Two back he earned a career top winning an Alw-2 optional claimer at Suffolk by a head. He was claimed out of his last start by the McClelland barn that does not start many in NY. He is showing a 0 for 2 mark first off the claim but if we go back five years the barn has won with 7 of 40 (with a +ROI) first off the claim and did a stint as an assistant to Howard Wolfendale in Maryland, one of the top claiming barns on that circuit. She has a win over a wet track.
Elusive Jozi tired to finish sixth last out on turf and looks headed back to dirt and possibly a wet track. This gal won two and three back over sloppy surfaces at the Spa, two back trouncing restricted $20K foes by six lengths. The runner up Natalie Victoria came back to bet Alw-1 foes at Suffolk by 15 1/4 lengths. She is the logical one to beat here but our top pick is going to offer more bang for our buck for the top spot.
Wagering
WIN: #13 to win at 9-2 or better.
EX: 12,13 / 9,12,13,14
TRI: 12,13 / 9,12,13,14 / 3,9,12,13,14
Live Longshots:
These are price plays for exotic players looking to find a couple of extra contenders to use in their trifecta and superfecta wagers. Or for those with smaller bankrolls, you might want to get in a small win-place wager.
Belmont Park
R3: #6 P J's Magical Wink 8-1
R5: #2 Most Happy Fella 10-1
R5: #1 Quiet Favorite 15-1
R8: #13 Sasta Go Lucky 12-1
Good luck today!
|
|
|
|
HORSE RACING EXPERT |
|
Mike Dempsey
Mike covers the New York racing circuit (Aqueduct, Belmont Park, and Saratoga) year round as well as Keeneland, Churchill Downs, the Triple Crown, and the Breeders’ Cup.
Last Year Mike had a solid Triple Crown, correctly picking the winning horse in 2 of 3 races. He selected I'll Have another to win The Preakness, and nailed Union Rags to win the Belmont Stakes as his top pick.
Mike has also had past succes in the Kentucky Derby, winning with Animal Kingdom in 2011 and rode his top picks, Super Saver and Street Sense, to the finish line in 2010 and 2007 respectively.
No handicapper in the industry works harder to bring you analysis that produces profits at the track!
Mike’s Reports include his selections, detailed analysis, a fair odds line, and wagering recommendations for the entire card.
Join Mike each day with daily picks from Belmont Park and Churchill Downs. You can also get his Weekend Best Plays Report in his Multi-Track package or sit at the track with him for 30 Days with his Monthly Horse Package!
|
|
|
HORSE RACING EXPERT |
|
Jerry Sessa
Jerry "Shots" Sessa has been involved in horse racing for over 30 years. He now brings his meticulous handicapping style to VegasInsider.com. When Jerry posts picks you are getting his best bets...when you win, he wins.
Jerry's is looking to repeat his 2012 Triple Crown success, when he selected the winning horses for The Preakness and The Belmont Stakes.
Jerry looks forward to working with everyone and making money for anyone who invests in his picks on a daily basis.
Join Jerry everyday with daily picks from Belmont Park and Churchill Downs or choose a package that contains selections from Multiple Tracks for the LOW PRICE of $14.95! Or better yet, how about 30 Days of horse racing picks with his Monthly Racing Package for ONLY $99.95!
|
|
|
|
|
