At the Gate - Thursday
December 5, 2012
By Mike Dempsey
Thankfully I like handicapping maiden races.
Thursday's Aqueduct card features six, count 'em, six maiden races on the nine race card, and I do not recall ever seeing more races carded for non-winners for as long as I have been covering New York racing.
While some might complain, I just had to spend some extra time handicapping the card. When 'capping maiden races I look up the pedigree of each and every horse, which actually is a lot easier than it used to be.
The BRIS past performances list how many siblings each runner has along with how many winners and stakes winners are among the group.
The Formulator software from The Daily Racing Form includes a Sibling Summary, which gives race records of not only the siblings, but also the mare. There are also websites that more pedigree information can be attained like the Thoroughbred Pedigree Database.
In the "old days" I had to accumulate information by hand and placed it in notebooks, and relied on the Stallion Registry, which is a publication as thick as a phone book.
It was a lot of extra work, but it usually paid off at the betting windows.
In addition to pedigree, trainer stats become very important when it comes to maiden races, particularly how each trainer does with first time starters.
There are some barns that have them ready to go at first asking like Wesley Ward and Todd Pletcher, while there are other trainers like Tony Dutrow and Kiaran McLaughlin who I tend to like to back second time out.
Among Thursday's maiden races are three that are carded for grass. The turf course was labeled as "good" on Wednesday with the rail out 18 feet.
While the card lacks star power with so many unproven runners, it is actually a very good betting card.
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Here is today's opening from Aqueduct to get the day off to a good start:
AQU Race 1 Md $50,000 (12:30 ET)
5 Unbridled Logic 5-2
3 O'Prado Ole 9-5
2 Retired 10-1
8 Cashleigh 5-1
Analysis: Unbridled Logic ships in from Churchill Downs where last out the gelding made a mild late rally to finish fourth against $30K maiden claimers on the main track as the beaten favorite. The third place finisher El Enforcer came back to graduate in his next outing for a $25K tag on Nov. 29 at Fair Grounds. He was claimed out of his last start and goes here for the Levine barn that is 27% winners (with a +ROI) first off the claim. This guy may take to turf, he has three sibs that are turf winners.
O'Prado Ole makes his first start since his debut back in August at the Spa where he checked in seventh at 7-1 in a field of ten. He did not face a real strong group in his debut and these are not exactly tough either. The $40K Keeneland purchase has a decent enough pedigree, by Grade 1 turf winner English Channel out of the stakes winner Mexican Moonlight ($195K) who did her best work on turf. He looks like a good fit here dropping in for a tag for the Romans barn that is off to a slow start at the meeting (0 for 8), but five of those starters did manage to land in the money.
WIN: #5 to win at 2-1 or better.
EX: 3,5 / 2,3,5,8
TRI: 3,5 / 2,3,5,8 / 2,3,4,5,8
Today's Featured Race of the Day from Aqueduct:
AQU Race 7 Md Sp Wt (3:18 ET)
8 Can't Catch Me Now 2-1
1 Dr Figawi 5-2
3 Cielo Soleggiato 9-2
4 Fierce Face 4-1
Analysis: Can't Catch Me Now pressed the early pace and weakened to finish third behind a pair of next out winners in a race taken off the turf. The colt comes back off a 2 1/2 month break here for the Guillo barn that is 25% winners (with a +ROI) with runners coming back off a 61-180 day layoff. The colt has three sibs that are winners, top earner stakes winner Like Now ($407K). The colt popped a bullet drill over the training track on Dec. 1.
Dr Figawi makes his debut for the Weaver barn that is on the light side with firsters, hitting at an 8% clip. The colt debuts with lasix and has solid looking works on the morning tab. He also has an attractive pedigree, out of the stakes winner Dr Margaret ($181K) who has dropped four winners including a pair of stakes winners, top earner Dr Disco ($276K).
WIN: #8 to win at 2-1 or better.
EX: 1,8 / 1,3,4,8
TRI: 1,8 / 1,3,4,8 / 1,3,4,6,8
These are price plays for exotic players looking to find a couple of extra contenders to use in their trifecta and superfecta wagers. Or for those with smaller bankrolls, you might want to get in a small win-place wager.
R1: #2 Retired 10-1
R2: #2 Lazulite 10-1
R4: #1 Cybertron 8-1
R4: #3 Small Town 12-1
R6: #6 Inquiring 8-1
R6: #2 Field Star 20-1
R9: #3 The High Priest 10-1
Good luck today!
HORSE RACING EXPERT
Mike covers the New York racing circuit (Aqueduct, Belmont Park, and Saratoga) year round as well as Keeneland, Churchill Downs, the Triple Crown, and the Breeders’ Cup.
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