There will be just a field of five for Saturday’s $300,000 Mother Goose (G1) at Belmont Park, but we will get a glimpse of Dreaming of Julia as she is back in action after her disappointing fourth place finish in the Kentucky Oaks (G1).
The Todd Pletcher filly caused quite a stir after her 21 ¼ length victory in the Gulfstream Park Oaks (G2) on March 30, earning a 114 Beyer Speed Figure and off the chart numbers according to the sheets players.
I thought she was a play against in the Oaks at 3-2 in a field of ten and I was right, as she had a tough trip and made a mild late run to finish fourth. The only problem was I did not come up with the winner Princess of Sylmar, who paid $79.60. The winner was also trained by Pletcher.
She was installed as the 1-2 morning line favorite for the Mother Goose, facing just four foes, but there are a couple of very talented fillies she will face.
The Bill Mott trained Close Hatches is coming off a runner up finish in the Acorn (G1) on May 27 behind the Bob Baffert trained Midnight Lucky. The filly won her first three career starts including the Gazelle (G2) at the Big A going nine furlongs.
Marathon Lady is coming off a game neck loss in a runner up finish in the Black Eyed Susan (G2) to another Baffert runner Fiftyshadesofhay.
Completing the field is Black Eyed Susan third place finisher Toasting and longshot Sister Slate, who was outrun against first level optional claimers in her last outing and looks in over her head.
In addition to a good card at Belmont Park we have another “Downs After Dark” program at Churchill Downs on Saturday with a 6:00 ET post time.
The feature is the $100,000 Debutante for juvenile fillies that drew a wide open field of 11 that incudes runners that made their last starts at Mountaineer Park, Lone Star Park, Arlington Park, Will Rogers Downs, Pimlico, Indiana Downs, Churchill Downs and Monmouth Park. It’s a complete toss-up.
I will have my full card reports for both tracks available here on Friday.
Analysis: Win for Kitten stalked the early pace and finished up well for the runner up spot last out over yielding turf at the Big A, beaten three lengths for the top spot behind a loose on the lead gate to wire winner. Two back the Chad Brown trainee beat $50,000 starter optional claimers with a good late run at Gulfstream Park. The break is no problem as the barn is strong with fresh runners and this gal has a solid turf pedigree, by Kitten's Joy out of a stakes placed Kris mare.
Blossom's Trail won both of her starts in Florida, last out beating $50,000 starter optional claimers after breaking her maiden for a $35,000 tag in her debut. She comes back here off nearly a three month break here for the Nicks barn that is 11% winners with runners coming back off a 61-180 day layoff. She has decent looking works over the Spa training track for her return and looks well spotted here.
WIN: #9 to win at 3-1 or better.
EX: 5,9 / 1,2,5,9
TRI: 5,9 / 1,2,5,9 / 1,2,5,7,9
Today's Featured Race of the Day from Belmont Park:
Analysis: Bake Shop invades from Maryland where in his last two starts here ran second and third at the open Alw-2 optional claiming level. He is back with state breds here and if he runs back to his solid runner up finish two back he is going to be tough here. Carrasco is in to ride for Vazquez. The gelding broke his maiden over the main track here last September for a $16,000 tag.
Most Happy Fella must be a happy fella as this guy has been claimed seven times in less than a year. He is coming off a win last out against $20,000 non-winners of three or a race since Nov. 19. He was claimed out of the race by the Imperio barn that is 21% winners (with a +ROI) first off the claim. He is back with state breds here and two back at the Big A he set the early fractions at this level before weakening to finish fourth. He is a three time winner over the main track here and the 5-1morning line looks fair enough to toss him in the mix.
WIN: #9 to win at 3-1 or better.
EX: 6,9 / 2,6,7,9
TRI: 6,9 / 2,6,7,9 / 2,5,6,7,9
These are price plays for exotic players looking to find a couple of extra contenders to use in their trifecta and superfecta wagers. Or for those with smaller bankrolls, you might want to get in a small win-place wager.
Mike DempseyMike covers the New York racing circuit (Aqueduct, Belmont Park, and Saratoga) year round as well as Keeneland, Churchill Downs, the Triple Crown, and the Breeders' Cup. The 2015 Triple Crown saw Mike correctly predict American Pharoah to win both the Preakness Stakes and Belmont Stakes. Mike nailed the Exacta and Trifecta in the Belmont Stakes. Mike had a solid 2014 Triple Crown race season, correctly picking the winning horse in 2 of 3 races. He selected I'll Have another to win The Preakness, and nailed Union Rags to win the Belmont Stakes as his top pick. Mike also had past succes in the Kentucky Derby, winning with Animal Kingdom in 2011 and rode his top picks, Super Saver and Street Sense, to the finish line in 2010 and 2007 respectively. No handicapper in the industry works harder to bring you analysis that produces profits at the track! Mike's Reports include his selections, detailed analysis, a fair odds line, and wagering recommendations for the entire card. Join Mike daily with top picks from Belmont. You can also get his Weekend Best Plays Report in his Multi-Track package or sit at the track with him for 30 Days with his Monthly Horse Package!
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Jerry SessaJerry "Shots" Sessa has been involved in horse racing for over 30 years. He now brings his meticulous handicapping style to VegasInsider.com. When Jerry posts picks you are getting his best bets...when you win, he wins. Jerry opened the 2016 Triple Crown season by hitting his Derby Day best bet, Nyquist. He also nailed the Derby exacta for a $30.60 payout. On 4/16/16 at Keeneland, Jerry hit an $819 exacta that led to a $38k Trifecta & a $300k Super.
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