The week gets off to a good start today at Belmont Park with a two-day carryover of $137,011 in the Pick 6. The wager starts with the fourth race with a post time of 2:38pm eastern.
I had a tough time coming up with many longshots throughout the card, and there is a very good chance a few horseplayers are going to be cashing.
Here is a quick look at the Pick 6 sequence:
4th race: This may be the toughest race on the day as a full field of 12 state bred maidens go to the post. Seven of the dozen are making their debuts including firsters from Christophe Clement, Bill Mott and Rudy Rodriguez.
5th race: He’s So Chic is the 7-5 morning line favorite, facing eight foes in this $14,000 claimer. The only problem is the chalk is a nine-year-old who was vanned off the track after a third place finish in his last outing.
6th race: A field of 10 fillies and mares will go 6 ½ furlongs looking to break maiden. There are a few well-bred runners in this field including Baragah, who is by Awesome Again out of the stakes winner Golden Apples ($1.67 million) who has dropped a couple of winners, Grade 3 winner Habaya ($135,000) and Grade 3 placed Hatheer ($169,367).
7th race: Another maiden race, this one a $40,000 maiden claimer on turf that drew a field of nine. So Royal is the 2-1 morning line favorite and looks tough, although there are a couple of first timers in the field.
8th race: see full analysis below.
9th race: The finale today is a restricted $35,000 claimer on turf that drew a competitive field of 11. The David Jacobson entry is the 5-2 morning line favorite, but there are a couple in here capable of beating the duo including Logan Street (5-1) and Get in Line (4-1).
Analysis: Cue the Moon looks likely to get the day off to a chalky start here as she is dropping out of Grade 1 company and is the lone speed despite taking the hood off. She cuts back from nine furlongs in the CCA Oaks (G1) where she prompted the early pace and weakened to finish fourth behind the talented Princess of Sylmar, who returned to win the Alabama (G1) in her next outing on Aug. 17 at the Spa. The filly has come back with a couple of good works since her last outing and catches four foes here she can outrun early.
Galloping Giraffe was fourth last out in the Alabama (G1), beaten 13 1/4 lengths. She was coming off a game runner up finish two back against Alw-1 foes in her first start against winners. She broke her maiden over the main track here three back at a mile in a race washed off the turf. The cut back to a one turn mile should suit.
WIN: #3 to win at 1-1 or better.
EX: 3 / 1,2
TRI: no play
Today's Featured Race of the Day from Belmont Park:
Analysis: Hothersal is making his first start off a 14 month layoff here and lands with the Pletcher barn. This guy has landed in the exacta in four of six trips and was in the mix in a couple of highly productive graded stakes in Canada in his last two starts. He was a good second at Gulfstream Park on turf versus Alw-1 foes last February off a year layoff. He makes his first start for the Pletcher barn that is 26% winners with runners coming back off a +180 day layoff.
Film Shot was a decent second last out at this level behind repeat winner Plainview, who came back to beat $25,000 starter optional claimers in his next outing on Aug. 26. The colt has been competitive in graded stakes but seems to come up short and he has put a dent in our bankroll over his career including coming up on the wrong ends of photos in back to back stakes. He has a nice pedigree, out of the Grade 1 turf winner Film Maker ($2.2 million).
WIN: #4 to win at 2-1 or better.
EX: 4,7 / 2,3,4,7
TRI: 4,7 / 2,3,4,7 / 1,2,3,4,7
These are price plays for exotic players looking to find a couple of extra contenders to use in their trifecta and superfecta wagers. Or for those with smaller bankrolls, you might want to get in a small win-place wager.
Mike DempseyMike covers the New York racing circuit (Aqueduct, Belmont Park, and Saratoga) year round as well as Keeneland, Churchill Downs, the Triple Crown, and the Breeders' Cup. The 2015 Triple Crown saw Mike correctly predict American Pharoah to win both the Preakness Stakes and Belmont Stakes. Mike nailed the Exacta and Trifecta in the Belmont Stakes. Mike had a solid 2014 Triple Crown race season, correctly picking the winning horse in 2 of 3 races. He selected I'll Have another to win The Preakness, and nailed Union Rags to win the Belmont Stakes as his top pick. Mike also had past succes in the Kentucky Derby, winning with Animal Kingdom in 2011 and rode his top picks, Super Saver and Street Sense, to the finish line in 2010 and 2007 respectively. No handicapper in the industry works harder to bring you analysis that produces profits at the track! Mike's Reports include his selections, detailed analysis, a fair odds line, and wagering recommendations for the entire card. Join Mike daily with top picks from Aqueduct or Gulfstream Park. You can also get his Weekend Best Plays Report in his Multi-Track package or sit at the track with him for 30 Days with his Monthly Horse Package!
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Jerry SessaJerry "Shots" Sessa has been involved in horse racing for over 30 years. He now brings his meticulous handicapping style to VegasInsider.com. When Jerry posts picks you are getting his best bets...when you win, he wins. Jerry opened the 2016 Triple Crown season by hitting his Derby Day best bet, Nyquist. He also nailed the Derby exacta for a $30.60 payout. On 4/16/16 at Keeneland, Jerry hit an $819 exacta that led to a $38k Trifecta & a $300k Super.
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