At the Gate - Wednesday
November 6, 2013
By Mike Dempsey
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It’s back to the daily grind of making money at Aqueduct on Wednesday after an exciting Breeders’ Cup, and we have a good card with the early Pick 5 looming very hittable.
The sequence includes a pair of stakes and don’t forget the early Pick 5 offers a reduced takeout.
The opener is the $100,000 Trevita for fillies and mares going 1 1/16 miles on the turf. The race is for non-winners of a stake on turf.
The sequence could get off to a chalky start because the Chad Brown trained Deanaallen’skitten looks as if she is going to be tough as the 7-5 morning line favorite.
We can find some value in the three non-stakes of the Pick 5 sequence. The other stake is the $100,000 Chip which is the third race and drew a field of five.
I am hoping we will see a speed duel between the two favorites as Ullapool (4-5) and Five Star Momma (8-5) both are speedy. That cold set things up for a runner form off the pace.
The fourth race is a $20,000 restricted claimer that drew a field of 11 and the fifth race drew a full field of a dozen $16,000 restricted claimers going a mile on the turf.
Even with a couple of chalks in the Pick 5 sequence, we have cashed a few nice tickets with the low takeout.
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Here is today’s opening from Aqueduct to get the day off to a good start:
AQU Race 1 The Trevita (12:20 ET)
5 Deanaallen'skitten 7-5
1 Medea 8-1
2 Daylight Ride 6-1
3 Moment in Dixie 3-1
Analysis: Deanaallen'skitten looks tough here as she coming back off a two month break for the Chad Brown barn. The mar made a mild late rally to finish third last out in the restricted Speed Boat which was won by Samitar, who is a Grade 1 winner and came back to run third in the Athenia (G3) in her next outing. The runner up was Baffle Me, who came back to win the Finney Stakes in her next outing on Oct. 25 at Belmont Park. The mare has landed in the money in 15 of her 17 career starts on turf and this barn is solid off short breaks. The price is going to be on the light side.
Medea is coming off a solid effort in her first start against winners, making a good late rally to finish in the runner up spot against Alw-1 optional claimers going nine furlongs. The filly broke her maiden two back over the turf at Belmont Park in her first go off a 7 1/2 month layoff. She looks primed for a top effort here third off the bench and looks as if she still has some upside.
WIN: #5 to win at 7-5 or better.
EX: 1,5 / 1,2,3,5
TRI: 1,5 / 1,2,3,5 / 1,2,3,5,6
Today’s Featured Race of the Day from Aqueduct:
AQU Race 7 Md Sp Wt (3:14 ET)
11 Charity Reins 15-1
10 Downgoesfrazier 9-2
3 Native Singer 30-1
1 Saltine Warrior 7-2
Analysis: Charity Reins had a tough trip last out in his first start off a 5 1/2 month layoff. The colt stalked the early pace and was squeezed back and bumped at the quarter pole and weakened to finish seventh. This guy was in the mix in his two previous starts earlier this spring, a third and a fourth. A clean trip second off the bench and he can be in the mix here at a price. He has three sibs that are grass winners and two of his sibs are stakes winners, top earner Jaramar Rain ($292,660).
Downgoesfrazier tracked the early pace and did not have enough punch left late last out in a fourth place finish at Belmont Park. Two back this guy was a game second, beaten just 3/4 of a length for the top spot and three back he ran a good second. Rosario picks up the call here and if he runs back to his effort two back he fits.
Native Singer is listed at 30-1 on the morning line but he has been the beaten chalk in each of his last four starts and the price sure looks like a typo. He makes his first start on dirt here after checking in sixth last out in his first start after landing with the Gullo barn. He is out of the turf stakes winner Camargo ($150,376).
WIN: #11 to win at 6-1 or better.
EX: 10,11 / 1,3,10,11
TRI: 10,11 / 1,3,10,11 / 1,3,5,10,11
These are price plays for exotic players looking to find a couple of extra contenders to use in their trifecta and superfecta wagers. Or for those with smaller bankrolls, you might want to get in a small win-place wager.
R1: #1 Medea 8-1
R3: #3 Kiss in the Forest 15-1
R7: #11 Charity Reins 15-1
R7: #3 Native Singer 30-1
R8: #1 Alwaysinmycircle 8-1
R9: #5 Bargaining Table 8-1
R9: #4 Flamingo Lane 12-1
Good luck today!
HORSE RACING EXPERT
Mike covers the New York racing circuit (Aqueduct, Belmont Park, and Saratoga) year round as well as Keeneland, Churchill Downs, the Triple Crown, and the Breeders’ Cup.
Last Year Mike had a solid Triple Crown, correctly picking the winning horse in 2 of 3 races. He selected I'll Have another to win The Preakness, and nailed Union Rags to win the Belmont Stakes as his top pick.
Mike has also had past succes in the Kentucky Derby, winning with Animal Kingdom in 2011 and rode his top picks, Super Saver and Street Sense, to the finish line in 2010 and 2007 respectively.
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