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Horse Racing

At the Gate – Sunday

VegasInsider Staff
VegasInsider Staff Sports Betting Expert
4 minute read
The first 50-point Road to the Kentucky Derby race came up a headscratcher, with Bravazo tracking the early pace and getting his nose in front at the wire at 21-1 while pacesetter Snapper Sinclair dueled for the early lead and just missed at odds of 41-1.
 
Bravazo was 8-1 on the morning line for Hall of Fame trainer D. Wayne Lukas with Miguel Mena taking the call, with Hall of Famer Gary Stevens originally listed to ride the colt.
 
His juvenile campaign last year included a runner up finish in the Breeders’ Futurity (G1) at 47-1 and a third in the Street Sense at 7-1, so perhaps we should not have overlooked him.
 
Snapper Sinclair made his last three starts in 2017 on turf including a 10th place finish in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf (G1). He pressed the early pace and weakened to finish third over the Fair Grounds main track in the LeComte (G3) in his three-yer-old debut. Again, a good effort that I overlooked and this guy is trained by Steve Asmussen.
 
The $2 exacta came back at $603.40.
 
At Golden Gate Fields in the $100,00 El Camino Real it was the filly Paved beating the boys and picking up 10 points toward entry into the Run for the Roses. She is not Triple Crown nominated at the moment.
 
She was coming off a maiden win in her third career start but earned a solid number and was sent off at 2-1 in the field of nine. City Plan completed a $2 exacta that paid $51.20.
 
There was 3-5 inches of snow forecast for New York overnight, so I decided to stick with Gulfstream Park and Oaklawn Park for Sunday and my Aqueduct Report for Monday is now posted.
 
My Best Plays Multi Track Report for Sunday includes my eight strongest plays from Gulfstream Park and Oaklawn Park.
 
Today’s Featured Race of the Day from Gulfstream Park:
 
GP Race 9 Md Sp Wt (4:10 ET)
#3 Blockade   2-1
#1 Brave Nation   8-1
#10 Unleveraged   5-2
#4 Empirically   9-2
 
Analysis: Blockade makes his first start since running second at Belmont Park last October. The winner of that race was Analyze It, who came back to win the Cecil B Demille (G3) in his next start while the third-place finisher Fast Boat came back to graduate in his next start and then run a good fourth in the Kitten's Joy. Lasix is added on this well-bred runner by War Front out of the stakes winner Hit It Rich ($521,810) who ash dropped one other foal to race, a turf winner.
 
Brave Nation was fifth in his debut on the main track at Tampa Bay Downs, sent off at 9-2 in a field of 11. The Mott barn is 17% winners with second out maidens and he should take to turf. He is by Pioneerof the Nile out of a stakes placed Pulpit mare that has dropped two other foals to race and they have both won on turf, top earner stakes winner Good Samaritan ($951,116). Rosario takes the call and we should catch a decent price on this guy. 
 
Wagering
WIN: #3 to win at 2-1 or better.
EX: 1,3 / 1,3,4,10
TRI: 1,3 / 1,3,4,10 / 1,2,3,4,10
 
Today’s Featured Race of the Day from Oaklawn Park:
 
OP Race 8 OClm $50,000N4L (4:42 CT)
#4 Uncontested   3-1
#7 Petrov   2-1
#1 Storm Advisory   7-2
#2 W.B. Smudge   4-1
 
Analysis: Uncontested cuts back to a sprint after tiring to finish sixth last out going a mile in his first start off a 3 1/2 month break. This guy won the Smarty Jones here last January at a mile but then was beaten double digit lengths in the Southwest (G3) and Rebel (G3). His last win came at six furlongs beating Alw-2 optional claimers at Churchill Downs. The cut back should suit this colt, who is sent out by the Cat Man who is 28% winners (with a +ROI) moving runners from route to sprint.
 
Petrov also went down the Derby trail here last year second in the Smarty Jones and Southwest and fourth in the Rebel. He has been better since cutting back in distance beating Alw-1 foes at the Spa and Alw-2 company at Keeneland. He did not fire in stakes company last out but now returns off a three month break with a bullet work on the morning tab. The Moquette is 16% winners with runners coming back off a 61-180 day layoff.
 
Wagering
WIN: #4 to win at 2-1 or better.
EX: 4,7 / 1,2,4,7
TRI: 4,7 / 1,2,4,7 / 1,2,3,4,7
 
Good luck today!

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