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Horse Racing

At the Gate – Sunday

VegasInsider Staff
VegasInsider Staff Sports Betting Expert
6 minute read
So, trainer Todd Pletcher has yet another Kentucky Derby prospect in Noble Indy, who won yesterday’s $1 million Louisiana Derby (G2) at Fair Grounds.

I had to watch the race on my phone as my better half, who is a musician had a gig. After setting up her equipment I pulled up the video on my phone.

My top pick was Noble Indy, who went clear at the half mile pole and then lost the lead in the stretch. Coming on the outside was my second choice My Boy Jack, and I started rooting for him. Then as the glare on my phone made it nearly impossible to see, I realized Noble Indy was battling back along the inside, but I was sure there was no way he could come back and win.

He did, returning $7.40 for the win but My Boy Jack could not get by Lone Sailor late and had to settle for the third spot.

It turned out to be a good day at Aqueduct, with six winners on top on the 10-race card. The winners paid $10.60, $2.80, $4.30, $7.20, $9.10 and $19.80.

We have the $800,000 Sunland Derby (G3) on tap on Sunday, with Derby points on the line. It is not a real deep group but a good betting race.

I landed on All Out Blitz, who is the 4-1 morning line favorite. He was beaten 15 ¼ lengths last out in a third-place finish in the San Vicente (G2) at seven furlongs, but I think he may be better going two turns.

My Best Plays Multi Track Report for Sunday includes my eight strongest plays from Aqueduct and Sunland Park.

To purchase my Aqueduct and Best Plays Reports for Sunday click here .

Here is the opening race from Aqueduct to get the day off to a good start:

AQU Race 1 Clm $14,000N3L (1:20 ET)
#5 Micozzi 2-5
#2 Kenyan 7-2
#4 Full of Mine 4-1
#3 Undercover Agent 10-1

Analysis: Micozzi is going to be a puny price but he sold be abler to run this field down in the stretch. Last out against $35,000 non0winners o three he made a mild late run to finish third. His last three speed figs are tops in here and he has shown enough tactical speed in early races that Junior can probably put this guy anywhere early including the lead.

Kenyan finished evenly in a third-place finish last out at this level on the stretch out from 6 1/2 furlongs. He has missed at this level a few too many times but he looks best of the rest of this compact field. His last out Beyer is 10 points lower than the chalk, but the BRIS numbers are much closer 81 to 79.

Wagering
WIN: #5 to win at 3-5 or better.
EX: 5 / 2,4
TRI: no play

Today’s Featured Race of the Day from Aqueduct:

AQU Race 8 The Cicada (4:56 ET)
#5 Lezendary 5-2
#4 Strategic Dreams 2-1
#6 Gibby 6-1
#7 Shamrock Rose 4-1

Analysis: Lezendary was a good looking maiden winner last out here in her fourth career start and she earned the top last out speed fig in the win. She bounced back after a sub par fifth two back as the beaten favorite. The RRod fill returns off a two month break here with decent looking morning works. She won last out as if she still has some upside. Her last out BRIS number was 10 points higher than the rest of the field while her Beyer was eight better.

Strategic Dreams has won three in a row, last out stalking the early pace and getting clear in the stretch with the filly shying away from the whip nearing the eighth pole. That effort came in the slop but she won the Gin Talking at Laurel Park two back over a fast main track. She is the most accomplished in the field but her numbers sure do not stand out and her price may end up on the light side.

Wagering
WIN: #5 to win at 2-1 or better.
EX: 4,5 / 4,5,6,7
TRI: 4,5 / 4,5,6,7 / 1,4,5,6,7

Today’s Featured Race of the Day from Sunland Park:

SUN Race 11 The Sunland Derby G3 (5:15 MT)
#1 All Out Blitz 4-1
#4 Hollywood Star 6-1
#5 Peace 12-1
#7 Prince Lucky 6-1

Analysis: All Out Blitz stretches back out to a route after a third last out in the San Vicente (G2) at seven furlongs. His best effort came in the one-mile Sham (G3) two back in his first start against winners. The colt set the early fractions and could not go with McKinzie late in a runner up finish. The winner came back to cross the wire first in the San Felipe (G2) in his next start only to get DQ'd for alleged interference in the stretch. The third-place finisher My Boy Jack came back to win the Southwest (G3) in his next outing and went in yesterday's Louisiana Derby (G2). He has enough pedigree to go nine furlongs. by Concord Point out of a Smart Strike mare, her first foal to race. The Callaghan barn is 17% winners (with a +ROI) moving runners from sprint to route.

Hollywood Star raced at the back of the pack and made up some ground late while wide to finish fourth in the Sam F. Davis (G3) at Tampa Bay Downs in his three-year-old debut. He ran second in the Saratoga Special (G2) and Iroquois (G3) in his first go long, then was sixth in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile (G1). He should move forward in his second start off a three month break for Romans who has a barn of talented three-year-olds. This guy was a $550,000 Keeneland purchase, by Malibu Moon out of the stakes winner Hollywood Story ($1.1 million) who has dropped three other winners, top earner stakes placed Horrayforhollywood ($212,519).

Peace was a smart looking maiden winner three back and that earned him a start in the Lewis (G3) where he did not show enough punch in the stretch in a fifth-place finish. He came back in the San Felipe (G2) at 44-1 and finished evenly for fourth, beaten just a half-length for third. Mandella gives him another shot to earn a trip to Louisville and I am not ready to give up on this guy yet. He should be a generous price in this spot. He is out of the stakes winner Queen's Triomphe ($162,193).

Wagering
WIN: #1 to win at 7-2 or better.
EX: 1,4 / 1,4,5,7
TRI: 1,4 / 1,4,5,7 / 1,4,5,7,8

Live Longshots:
These are price plays for exotic players looking to find a couple of extra contenders to use in their trifecta and superfecta wagers. Or for those with smaller bankrolls, you might want to get in a small win-place wager.

Aqueduct
R1: #3 Undercover Agent 10-1
R2: #7 Celtic Serenade 8-1
R4: #4 Storm Rita 8-1
R5: #3 Blushing Justine 12-1
R9: #6 Princess Rashelle 10-1

Good luck today!

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