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Horse Racing

At the Gate – Monday

VegasInsider Staff
VegasInsider Staff Sports Betting Expert
4 minute read
Monomoy Girl took the field gate to wire for an impressive victory in the $300,000 Coaching Club American Oaks (G1) at Saratoga on Sunday with Midnight Bisou showing she is not quite at the same level, checking in three lengths back.

The two were just about even in the betting with a minute to post which made me a little nervous since I singled Monomoy Girl in the late Pick 4 and thought she was a standout.

Turns out I stressed for no reason, until the final leg of the Pick 4 where I was alive to my top four picks only to see my top pick flip behind the gate and get scratched.

That gave me Competitionofideas twice since she was the betting favorite along with a pair of longshots in East Moon and Quaff.

Quaff got a brilliant ride from Manny Franco and got up to win and returned $18.40 and the $1 Pick 4 paid $1,501.00. My other longshot East Moon ran a good second and the $2 exacta paid $130.50, which I did not play.

Nobody solved the Pick 6 and there is a carryover today of $69,580.

Monday’s card is solid, and we have a wide-open feature, the $200,000 Caress for fillies and mares going 5 ½ furlongs on turf. A full field of 10 will go to the post.

Triple Chelsea is the 3-1 morning line favorite and has won three in a row, but I landed on Lull who is getting comes class relief after a good effort in a third-place finish in the Just a Game (G1) at a mile on the turf behind the talented A Racing Beauty.

Now is the perfect time to purchase my Monthly Package for just $99.95. It gives you a month of Saratoga which is running six days a week and my Best Plays Report each Saturday and Sunday.

To purchase my Saratoga and Best Plays Reports for Monday click here .

Here is the opening race from Saratoga to get the day off to a good start:

SAR Race 1 Md $40,000 (1:00 ET)
#3 Metaphorical 6-1
#1 Mantle 2-1
#5 Shanghai Schwartz 3-1
#6 Fox Red 7-2

Analysis: Metaphorical chased the early pace and could not get to the winner in the stretch in a runner up finish last out in his first go for a tag. He did not care much for the turf after running fourth three back versus tougher. He owns solid early and mid pace numbers and is bred to like a wet track if the rains come. He is out of a stakes placed Grand Reward mare that has dropped one other foal to race, no winners to date. Decent value if he goes near his 6-1 morning line.

Mantle dueled for the early lead and weekend to finish fifth last out in his debut at Gulfstream Park He was sent off as the 2-1 favorite and now drops in for a tag. He earned a decent fig but really was not facing much in Florida and while he fits here he is not a real standout and may end up getting bet like one. A quick drop for a $400,000 Keeneland purchase. Pletcher is 29% winners dropping runners from maiden special to maiden claiming.

Wagering
WIN: #3 to win at 4-1 or better.
EX: 1,3 / 1,3,5,6
TRI: 1,3 / 1,3,5,6 / 1,3,4,5,6

Today’s Featured Race of the Day from Saratoga:

SAR Race 7 The Caress (4:24 ET)
#4 Lull 7-2
#5 Faypien 8-1
#1 Just Talkin 8-1
#2 Morticia 5-1

Analysis: Lull cuts back from a mile where the Clement trainee set the early fractions after bobbling at the break and held on gamely until late in a third-place finish in the Just a Game (G1). The winner A Racing Beauty came back to ruin a close up third in the Diana (G1) on Saturday here. She has shown enough tactical speed she can handle the cut back and in her last two turf sprints she was third in the Buffalo Franklin County and won the Kentucky Downs ladies Turf Sprint. The trainer is 31% winners (with a +ROI) moving runners from route to sprint.

Faypien set the early fractions and finished gamely in a neck loss in the Intercontinental (G3) going seven furlongs at Belmont Park. The winner La Sardane came back to win the Perfect Sting in her next start on June 30 at Belmont Park. The Baffert trainee showed she could handle the grass last out and the 8-1 morning line looks generous in this spot.

Wagering
WIN: #4 to win at 3-1 or better.
EX: 4,5 / 1,2,4,5
TRI: 4,5 / 1,2,4,5 / 1,2,3,4,5

Live Longshots:
These are price plays for exotic players looking to find a couple of extra contenders to use in their trifecta and superfecta wagers. Or for those with smaller bankrolls, you might want to get in a small win-place wager.

Saratoga
R2: #3 Ailish 10-1
R4: #7 Early Retirement 10-1
R5: #1 Morning Stride 8-1
R7: #1 Just Talkin 8-1
R7: #5 Faypien 8-1
R9: #5 Just Cat 8-1
R9: #6 Adorina 12-1

Good luck today!

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