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Horse Racing

At the Gate – Sunday

VegasInsider Staff
VegasInsider Staff Sports Betting Expert
6 minute read
Four more races came off the turf on Saturday at Aqueduct including the feature in which my top four selections were all scratched.
 
Mother Nature has been a real pain the past couple of months in New York. At least today one of the stakes on the nine-race card is on the main track.
 
One of things I complain about a lot (other than the weather) if how some of my top picks end up taking late action, but the opposite happened in the nightcap yesterday.
 
My top pick Can’tweallgetalong was 5-1 on the morning line, but when I glanced up from handicapping today’s card to check out the toteboard he was sitting at a chilly 12-1.
 
I thought the Michelle Nevin trainee would take some late play but instead his price actually drifted up more, and the colt got the job done and returned a hefty $33.20 as my top pick.
 
Bragging Rights was my top pick in the second at Del Mar yesterday and also drifted up from his morning line, returning $15.40 and capping an early double with my second choice Bahamian in the opener that returned a generous $81.20.
 
I have my fingers crossed we will be back on turf at the Big A. The eighth race is the $100,000 Stewart Manor for juveniles going six furlongs on turf.
 
Dragic is 5-2 on the morning line and she looks pretty tough. She was third in the Futurity in her last outing. The winner Uncle Benny came back to run second in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile Turf (G1) while the runner up Backtohisroots came back to win the off the turf Atlantic Bach at Aqueduct yesterday.
 
At least the nightcap is on the main track. A field of 11 go in the $125,000 New York Stallion Series and as you can see below, I give a longshot a good chance of landing for a major share.
 
Now is the perfect time to purchase my Monthly Package for just $99.95. It gives you a month of Aqueduct daily and my Best Plays Report each Saturday and Sunday.
 
My Best Plays Report for Sunday includes my eight strongest plays from Aqueduct and Churchill Downs.
 
To purchase my Aqueduct and Best Plays Reports for Sunday click here.
 
Here is the opener from Aqueduct to get the day off to a good start:
 
AQU Race 1 Md $30,000 (12:20 ET)
#5 Congrats Ellen   8-1
#1 Ok Honey   9-2
#2 Infatuation   2-1
#7 Ash n' Em   5-2
 
Analysis: Congrats Ellen caught a sloppy track at Philly in her debut where she was sent off at 3-1 in a field of eight for a $40,000 tag. She tracked the early pace and weakened to finish eighth and last. She catches a pretty weak group and willing to give her another look here as she is going to be a more generous price. The Breen barn is 10% winners with second out maidens. She is the first foal to race out of a Tiznow mare.
 
Ok Honey was beaten double digit lengths in her three career starts and now drops in for a tag for the first time. Two of her three starts were on turf and pedigree wise she may be better suited for dirt. She stumbled coming out of the gate with the jock losing his irons in his lone go on dirt two back. She is out of a Not For Love mare that has dropped two other foals to race with one winner.
 
Wagering
WIN: #5 to win at 5-1 or better.
EX: 1,5 / 1,2,5,7
TRI: 1,5 / 1,2,5,7 / 1,2,4,5,7
 
Today’s Featured Race of the Day from Aqueduct:
 
AQU Race 9 The NY Stallion Series (4:17 ET)
#10 Frostie Anne   9-2
#4 Bluegrass Flag   20-1
#8 Highway Star   8-5
#9 Frost Wise   5-1
 
Analysis: Frostie Anne had a six-race winning streak snapped last out in the state bred Empire Distaff 'Cap and she did it in a big way, fading badly to finish 26 1/4 lengths back of the winner. The mare won the state bred Saratoga Dew two back at nine furlongs and she has run ell going one turn. Her last was off a two-month break and fact RRod keeps her in a stake looks like a positive she is going to bounce back with a much better effort. She owns a solid pace profile throughout and the 9-2 morning line looks air enough.
 
Bluegrass Flag exits the same race as our top pick where she dueled for the early lead and tired to finish seventh. She was a good second going a one turn mile two back at Laurel Park against Alw-2 optional claimers. She won a NY Stallion Series race last spring and also won the open Cicada at six furlongs on the inner dirt. The cut back should suit for Morley who is 16% winners moving runners from route to sprint. Worth tossing in the mix here at a generous price.
 
Wagering
WIN: #10 to win at 4-1 or better.
EX: 4,10 / 4,8,9,10
TRI: 4,10 / 4,8,9,10 / 2,4,8,9,10
 
Today’s Featured Race of the Day from Churchill Downs:
 
CD Race 8 OClm $62,500N2X (4:36 ET)
#7 Maybe Wicked   3-1
#5 Go Lady Jay   7-2
#1 Shanghai Tariff   4-1
#2 Nineteenth Street   4-1
 
Analysis: Maybe Wicked takes the hood off here after catching a sloppy track at Keeneland last out. She dueled for the early lead and tired to finish fourth. She has done some of her best work here, breaking her maiden here back in May and running a game second at this condition two back where she was beaten just a half-length. Check out Cox's record removing the hood—winning with 12 of his 24 starters (with a +ROI). She owns a solid pace profile throughout.
 
Go Lady Jay exits the same race as our top pick. She dueled early and was no match for the 8 1/4 length winner in a runner up finish. His last go over a fast main track came at Hawthorne back in April where she was beaten a neck in a Ill. bred stake. She has been much better on fast dirt and fits well in this spot.
 
Wagering
WIN: #7 to win at 5-2 or better.
EX: 5,7 / 1,2,5,7
TRI: 5,7 / 1,2,5,7 / 1,2,3,5,7
 
Live Longshots:
These are price plays for exotic players looking to find a couple of extra contenders to use in their trifecta and superfecta wagers. Or for those with smaller bankrolls, you might want to get in a small win-place wager.
 
Aqueduct
R1: #5 Congrats Ellen   8-1
R4: #9 Alley to Calvary   8-1
R6: #3 Vortex Road   8-1
R9: #4 Bluegrass Flag   20-1
 
Good luck today!

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