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Horse Racing

At the Gate – Saturday

VegasInsider Staff
VegasInsider Staff Sports Betting Expert
7 minute read
We have some great betting action at Gulfstream Park on Saturday and I included all five of the graded stakes in today’s Best Plays Report.
 
The biggest name on the card is Florida Derby (G1) winner and Kentucky Derby (G1) third place finisher Audible. The Todd Pletcher trainee is getting a tune up for the $9 million Pegasus World Cup (G1) which is now just over a month away.
 
The colt is the 2-5 morning line favorite in the $100,000 Harlan’s Holliday (G3), a 1 1/16-mile race on the main track where he will face five seemingly overmatched foes.
 
I’ll take a small stab with Village King, who is coming off a win in the off the turf Red Smith at Aqueduct. He is 4-1 on the morning line and figures to go off around that price.
 
The other four stakes are part of the late Pick 4 and it is a challenging sequence.
 
It starts with the Rampart (G3) at a mile on the main track with a field of seven going to the post. Tweeting is the 8-5 morning liner favorite off a second in the Shine Again at Laurel park.
 
The My Charmer (G3) goes on turf and this is a tough one. A full field of 14 go with Capla Temptress the 7-2 morning line favorite but there are a couple of others that could go off as the lukewarm favorite.
 
The Sugar Swirl (G3) takes us back on dirt with Awestruck the 2-1 favorite. She had a tough trip in a runner up finish in the Dream Supreme at Churchill Downs.
 
If we are alive going into the final leg we have another tough turf race, with 14 going in the Ft. Lauderdale (G2) at nine furlongs on turf. There are five Grade or Group 1 winners in this strong field and any of them could win.
 
My Best Plays Report for Saturday includes my nine strongest plays from Aqueduct and Gulfstream Park.
 
Now is the perfect time to purchase my Monthly Package for just $99.95. It gives you a month of Aqueduct daily and my Best Plays Report each Saturday and Sunday.
 
To purchase my Aqueduct and Best Plays Reports for Saturday click here.
 
Here is the opener from Aqueduct to get the day off to a good start:
 
AQU Race 1 Md $25,000 (12:20 ET)
#7 Dynamite Kitten   3-1
#8 Promise Me Roses   6-1
#10 Youmakemeblush   9-2
#9 Got the Gist   7-2
 
Analysis: Dynamite Kitten tracked the early pace from the inside and faded to finish a well beaten fourth last out and now drops back in fora tag. Two back this filly dueled for the early lead and held on gamely for the runner up spot for a $40,000 tag. She is out of a Dynaformer mare that has dropped four winners including stakes winner Hollinger ($712,211). The Kimmel trainee looks capable of better in her third start off the break.
 
Promise Me Roses tracked the early pace and faded to finish sixth in her first start off the claim by the Klesaris barn. Two back for the Martin barn she earned a career top in a fourth-place finish for this tag. She has the pedigree to handle the stretch out to a mile, by Lemon Drop Kid out of the stakes winner Promise Me a Cat ($320,820), her first foal to race.
 
Wagering
WIN: #7 to win at 5-2 or better.
EX: 7,8 / 7,8,9,10
TRI: 7,8 / 7,8,9,10 / 1,7,8,9,10
 
Today’s Featured Race of the Day from Aqueduct:
 
AQU Race 8 Alw $70,000N1X (3:47 ET)
#11 Aveenu Malcainu   6-1
#1 Bon Raison   20-1
#3 Royal Asset   6-1
#4 Cerretalto   4-1
 
Analysis: Aveenu Malcainu chased the early pace and faded to finish eighth last out in the Cherokee Run at Churchill Downs going seven furlongs. The colt came back off a three-month break with two good efforts against state bred Alw-2 optional claimers, getting the job done second off the break. She drops into a better spot here taking on Alw-1 foes for Englehart. He figures to bounce back with a better effort in this spot.
 
Bon Raison set the early fractions and weakened to finish third last out against $16,000 starter allowance foes and steps up into a slightly tougher spot here. He was beaten double digit lengths two and three back, but those trips were against graded stakes company. He won back to back races before that over $35,000 non-winners of three and $50,000 starter allowance foes at Belmont Park, both at seven furlongs. The colt may be heading back in the right direction form wise and the cut back to 6 1/2 will suit this guy. Worth tossing in the mix here at a generous price.
 
Wagering
WIN: #11 to win at 9-2 or better.
EX: 1,11 / 1,3,4,11
TRI: 1,11 / 1,3,4,11 / 1,3,4,5,9,11
 
Today’s Featured Race of the Day from Gulfstream Park:
 
GP Race 10 The Sugar Swirl G3 (4:36 ET)
#7 Dream Pauline   4-1
#2 Awestruck   2-1
#3 Bronx Beauty    7-2
#4 Stormy Embrace    5-1
 
Analysis: Dream Pauline had a rough trip last out in her stakes debut in the Dream Supreme at Churchill Downs. The filly had to steady in traffic down the backstretch and into the turn, angled out five wide and picked it up late in a third-place finish. The winner Vertical Oak came back to win the Garland of Roses in her next outing on Dec. 8. The filly won her first two starts, a six-length maiden score in her debut over the main track here and then she beat Alw-1 foes at the Spa in a good-looking effort. McLaughlin was thinking Breeders' Cup Filly & Mare Sprint (G1) with her but she did not get into the race. She has the pedigree, by Tapit out of the stakes winner Dream Rush ($779,364) who has dropped four other winners including stakes winner Dreaming of Julia ($874,500). This gal still has a ton of upside.
 
Awestruck also exits the Dream Supreme where she ran second at 6-1 and she had some trouble as well. The filly was put in tight quarters and had to steady on the backstretch, came with a five wide bid and could not get to the winner late. She makes her third start of her current form cycle and a clean trip here puts her right in the mix.
 
Bronx Beauty cuts back to six furlongs after tracking the early pace and weakening to finish fourth last out in the Raven Run (G2) at Keeneland. The winner of the race was Shamrock Rose, the 25-1 upset winner of the Breeders' Cup Filly & Mare Sprint in her start. The runner up in the raven Run was Blamed, who came back to win the Comely (G3) at Aqueduct in her next outing on Nov. 23.
 
Wagering
WIN: #7 to win at 3-1 or better.
EX: 2,7 / 2,3,4,7
TRI: 2,7 / 2,3,4,7 / 2,3,4,7,8
 
Live Longshots:
These are price plays for exotic players looking to find a couple of extra contenders to use in their trifecta and superfecta wagers. Or for those with smaller bankrolls, you might want to get in a small win-place wager.
 
Aqueduct
R3: #1 Party Like Grandma   8-1
R4: #12 Everything Pazible   8-1
R4: #3 Sir Peanut   20-1
R5: #1 Trouble for Skylar   10-1
R6: #8 Spun to Run   12-1
R7: #3 Arthur’s Hope   10-1
R7: #8 Gypsum Johnny   8-1
R8: #1 Bon Raison   20-1
R9: #1 Tiz a Chance   8-1
 
Good luck today!

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