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Horse Racing

At the Gate – Thursday

VegasInsider Staff
VegasInsider Staff Sports Betting Expert
4 minute read
Pool 2 of the 2019 Kentucky Derby Future wager opens on Friday and runs for three days, ending at 6:00 ET on Sunday.

Just a reminder this is a pari-mutuel pool, meaning your final price will be determined at closing time, so wait until Sunday to place your wagers.

There is one Road to the Kentucky Derby points race on tap this weekend. The $250,000 Sam F. Davis (G3) at Tampa Bay Downs offers up 10-4-2-1 points toward entry into the Run for the Roses.

“All other three-year-olds” is the 5-2 morning favorite in Pool 2. Trainer Bob Baffert has the top pair of contenders among the 23 separate betting interests.

Game Winner is 6-1 on the morning line. The colt is undefeated in four starts, capping off his 2018 campaign by winning the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile (G1).

Baffert’s Improbable is listed at 8-1. The colt is also undefeated, a perfect 3 for 3. He won the Los Alamitos Futurity (G1) in his last start.

Coliseum is also trained by Baffert. The colt, listed at 15-1 was a very impressive maiden winner in his debut, then disappointed in a sixth-place finish in the Sham (G3) as the beaten chalk.

Mucho Gusto (15-1) gives Baffert yet another bullet in his Derby holster. The colt won the Robert B. Lewis (G3) in his last outing.

The Sam F. Davis drew a field of 10 led by Knicks Go, who won the Breeders’ Futurity (G1) and ran second in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile last year. He followed that up with a disappointing 11th in the slop in the Kentucky Jockey Club (G2) on Nov. 24 in his last start.

The Ben Colebrook trainee is listed at 30-1 in Pool 2 of the Derby Future Wager.

I will have selections analysis of the Sam F. Davis in Saturday’s column.

Pool 2 Kentucky Derby Future wager:
1. Bourbon War 50-1
2. Coliseum 15-1
3. Game Winner 6-1
4. Global Campaign 50-1
5. Gray Attempt 50-1
6. Gunmetal Gray 20-1
7. Harvey Wallbanger 20-1
8. Hidden Scroll 12-1
9. Improbable 8-1
10. Instagrand 10-1
11. Knicks Go 30-1
12. Limonite 50-1
13. Maximus Mischief 20-1
14. Mucho Gusto 15-1
15. Network Effect 30-1
16. Owendale 50-1
17. Signalman 20-1
18. Tacticus 50-1
19. Tax 20-1
20. Vekoma 30-1
21. Walking Thunder 50-1
22. War of Will 30-1
23. Win Win Win 30-1
24. All Other 3-Year-Olds 5-2

Now is the perfect time to purchase my Monthly Package for just $99.95. It gives you a month of Aqueduct daily and Best Plays Report each Saturday and Sunday.

To purchase my Aqueduct Report for Thursday click here.

Here is the opener from Aqueduct to get the day off to a good start:

AQU Race 1 Clm $14,000N3L (12:50 ET)
#4 Can'tweallgetalong 5-2
#2 Flatexcel 8-5
#3 Sandy Lane 5-1
#1 Nolinski 5-2

Analysis: Can'tweallgetalong caught a sloppy track last out and came with a good late rally to finish a close up third, beaten just a neck and a head for the top spot. The runner up Javelin came back to beat $14,000 non-winners of three in his next start on Jan. 12. Nevin claimed this guy for $16,000 last summer at the Spa and his last two starts were solid efforts good enough to beat this group.

Flatexcel dueled for the early lead and battled on gamely, unable to match strides late with the winner in a runner up finish at this level last out. He bounced back after getting beaten double digit lengths in his two previous starts. He owns a solid pace profile throughout and is a legit threat as the likely favorite. If the track is still wet, he sports a 0 for 5 mark on off going.

Wagering
WIN: #4 to win at 2-1 or better.
EX: 2,4 / 2,3,4
TRI: no play

Today’s Featured Race of the Day from Aqueduct:

AQU Race 7 OClm $100,000C (3:59 ET)
#4 Solid Wager 8-5
#6 Stan the Man 5-2
#2 Backsideofthemoon 4-1
#5 Exulting 9-2

Analysis: Solid Wager stalked the early pace, came with a wide bid and drew clear late to win the Toboggan (G3) last out in a sharp effort at seven furlongs. The gelding was making his first start since shipping in from the left coast and landing with the Englehart barn. He owns a solid pace profile throughout and finds a good spot here. The one turn mile looks perfect for him and he has a win and a second in his three trips on wet tracks.

Stan the Man went gate to wire to beat Alw-2 optional claimers salty out going nine furlongs here. He caught a racing strip that was kind to inside speed that day. He beat $50,000 starter allowance foes in the slop at Belmont Park last May. He has landed in the money in 7 of 9 starts over the main track here and holds a good edge in early and mid pace numbers. Terranova has been sending out live runners at the meeting, but this guy could end up a lighter price than his 5-2 morning line.

Wagering
WIN: #4 to win at 8-5 or better.
EX: 4,6 / 2,4,5,6
TRI: 4,6 / 2,4,5,6 / 1,2,4,5,6

Live Longshots:
These are price plays for exotic players looking to find a couple of extra contenders to use in their trifecta and superfecta wagers. Or for those with smaller bankrolls, you might want to get in a small win-place wager.

Aqueduct
R2: #1 Huracan 8-1
R2: #6 Justinspeightofit 15-1
R3: #8 Celtic Mission 10-1
R4: #4 Twofer 8-1
R5: #7 Hushion 12-1
R6: #4 Binkster 8-1

Good luck today!

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