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Horse Racing

Horse Races Today: Saturday’s Belmont Park and Churchill Downs Analysis & Odds

VegasInsider Staff
VegasInsider Staff Sports Betting Expert
7 minute read
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The feature at Belmont Park on Saturday afternoon is the $300,000 Ogden Phipps (G1), and while it drew a compact field of six it is a tough group of fillies and mares that will go 1 1/16 miles on the main track.
 
Ollie’s Candy is the 8-5 morning line favorite, shipping in from Santa Anita for trainer John Sadler. The mare had a clear lead in the Apple Blossom (G1) at Oaklawn Park but got run down by the talented Ce Ce.
 
Third in that race was Point of Honor, who is the 2-1 morning line favorite in the Phipps. She was way too far back early over the Oaklawn Park surface and she has a great shot of turning the tables this afternoon and she is who I will be backing for the top spot.
 
The feature at Churchill Downs this afternoon is the $100,000 Louisville (G3) which drew a competitive field of 12 that will go 1 ½ miles on turf. The race is the finale on an 11-race card.
 
The Brad Cox trained Arklow is the 8-5 morning line favorite. The six-year-old is making his first start since running fifth in the Pegasus World Cup Turf (G1) at Gulfstream Park in January. He won just one of his seven starts last year, but that one victory came in the prestigious Joe Hirsch Turf Classic (G1) at Belmont Park last October.
 
I am going to look for a bit more value with Admission Office, who was fourth in the Sunshine Forever at Gulfstream Park in his last outing and may be able to pull off a minor upset.
 
My Best Plays Report for Saturday includes my nine strongest plays from Churchill Downs and Belmont Park.
 
You can catch the action from Belmont Park and Churchill Downs today from 1:00 to 2:30 on FS2 and 2:30 to 6:30 on FS1. Horseplayers can also stream all the horse racing action using the Watch TVG App. The horse betting company based in the U.S. is offering a risk free bet up to $300 for new players. 
 
To purchase my Belmont Park and Best Plays Reports for Saturday click here .
 
Now is the perfect time to purchase my Monthly Package. It gives you a month of Belmont Park Reports daily and my Best Plays Report which will include all the major Road to the Kentucky Derby prep races.
 
Here is the opening race from Belmont Park to get the day off to a good start:

Belmont Park Race 1 Analysis - 6/13 (1:15)

BEL Race 1 Md $40,000 (1:15 ET)
#10 Our Troubadour   7-2
#12 No Sense   8-1
#11 Mitzrayim   10-1
#1 After Prom Party   10-1
 
Analysis: Our Troubadour returns to turf here after making a good late rally to finish in the runner up spot last out over a wet track here off the bench last out. The colt caught a racing strip that was playing to inside speed that day. He has two trips on grass in his career including a decent third here last October in his second career start. He does not have a real strong turf pedigree debut showed he can handle it and should move forward second off the bench for an underrated barn. The barn is 15% winners (with a +ROI) overall in turf sprints.
 
No Sense debuts for the Danner barn that is 12% winners (with a +ROI) with first timers. The gelding is by Street Sense out of a Menifee mare that won once on turf and has dropped six winners and three have won on turf with two stakes winners, top earner Derby Kitten ($469,696). The gelding sports solid looking works at Tampa Bay Downs and one local breeze here on the training track since coming north. Franco takes the call and this gelding should be a decent price in this spot. 
 
Today’s Featured Race of the Day from Churchill Downs:

Churchill Downs Race 6 Analysis - 6/13 (3:42 ET)

CD Race 6 Clm $50,000B (3:42 ET)
#2 Ebben   3-1
#8 Pyron   5-2
#5 Make Noise   8-1
#4 Runnin' Ray   8-1
 
Analysis: Ebben stalked the early pace had to wait in behind foes looking for some running room from the 5 1/6's to the 1/4 and was angled toward the inside but could not make up enough ground late in a fifth place finish. Note that outing came against open $50,000 foes and he in restricted company here while cutting back to seven furlongs. He was a game second two back at Oaklawn Park against $35,000 non-winners of three. He owns a solid pace profile throughout and fits well here although it has been a while since his last win.
 
Pyron tracked the early pace and did not have enough punch left late in a fourth-place finish last out against Alw-2 optional claimers going 5 1/2 on turf. The Asmussen trainee returns to the main track here and both of his wins came at Oaklawn Park, breaking his maiden on dirt in his debut and then beating Alw-1 optional claimers in the slop. The barn is 21% winners moving runners from turf to dirt.
 
Today’s Featured Race of the Day from Belmont Park:

Belmont Park Race 9 Analysis - 6/13 (5:36 ET)

BEL Race 9 The Ogden Phipps G1 (5:36 ET)
#2 Point of Honor   2-1
#3 She's a Julie   8-1
#5 Ollie's Candy   8-5
#6 Golden Award   7-2
 
Analysis: Point of Honor looks primed for a top effort as she makes her third start off the bench here for the Weaver barn. She was the beaten chalk against $40,000 handicap foes two back off a 6 1/2-month layoff. last out in the Apple Blossom 'Cap (G1) on the stretch out she was away last and outrun early and after being 20+ lengths behind in the early stages came with a good late rally to finish third, beaten 2 1/4 lengths. She landed din the exacta in four of her five starts last year including runner up finishes at Saratoga in the CCA Oaks (G1) and Alabama (G1). She reunites with Castellano and just needs one of those in here to keep the chalk honest early.
 
She's a Julie makes her second start off a 7 1/2 month break here for the Asmussen barn, not a threat in a sixth-place finish in the Shawnee last out at Churchill Downs. She won the Bayakoa (G3) and La Troien (G1) last year and she then lost four in a row but was in against tougher company including Blue Prize, Midnight Bisou and Elate. She is capable of a much better effort last out and should move forward for Asmussen who is 22% winners with runners making their second start of a +180-day layoff. She will be chasing the favorite in the early going and if that one regresses, she has a good shot of being in the mix here at a decent price.
 
Ollie's Candy set the early factions, opened up heading for home but got nailed late by Ce Ce in the Apple Blossom. She earned a career top speed fig in the effort, her fourth loss in a row Her last win came in the Clement L. Hirsch (G1) at Del Mar last July. She owns a good edge in early and mid pace numbers and may appreciate the cut back to one turn. She seems likely to get bet down from her 8-5 morning line.

Live Longshots:

These are price plays for exotic players looking to find a couple of extra contenders to use in their trifecta and superfecta wagers. Or for those with smaller bankrolls, you might want to get in a small win-place wager.
 
Belmont Park
1: #12 No Sense   8-1
R1: #11 Mitzrayim   10-1
R2: #10 Quality Choice   12-1
R3: #6 Dare to Try   8-1
R3: #7 Arima   12-1
R4: #6 Gatto Marrone   12-1
R5: #5 Playthatfunnymusic   8-1
R6: #2 Pool Winner   15-1
R6: #7 Pocket Change   8-1
R8: #5 Quality Stones   8-1
R9: #3 She’s a Julie   8-1
R10: #7 Princess Fawzia   12-1
 
Good luck today!

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