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Horse Racing

Thursday’s Picks from Belmont Park

VegasInsider Staff
VegasInsider Staff Sports Betting Expert
5 minute read
Churchill Downs has closed their meeting, but we still have plenty of action from Belmont Park this week as well as Keeneland kicking off their shortened meeting next week.
 
A field of seven fillies and mares will line up in today’s $100,000 Mount Vernon at a mile on turf this afternoon at Belmont Park led by an imposing duo saddled by trainer Chad Brown.
 
Fifty Five is the 4-5 morning line favorite and the mare has won 7 of her 11 starts over the Belmont Park turf and has won her last five starts when taking on New York breds as she does today.
 
Her stablemate is War Canoe, who beat second level optional claimers in her last outing. She was claimed out of that race by the now indicted Jason Servis and has landed with Brown. It will be interesting to see how she runs today.
 
Horses formerly with Servis and Navarro has been running fairly well for their new trainers, better than I thought they would.
 
We have a big weekend of racing coming up with five graded stakes at Belmont Park including the Metropolitan Mile (G1), which is a “Win and You’re In” race for the Breeders’ Cup Dirt Mile (G1).
 
In addition, we have the $150,000 Los Alamitos Derby (G3) and at Delaware Park there are four stakes including the $300,000 Delaware Oaks (G3).
 
You can catch the action from Belmont Park from 1:00 to 2:20 and 4:40 to 6:00 ET on FS2. In addition, you can stream the action using the TVG App. The horse betting company based in the U.S. is offering a risk free bet up to $300 for new players. 
 
To purchase my Belmont Park Report for Thursday click here .
 
Now is the perfect time to purchase my Monthly Package. It gives you a month of Belmont Park Reports daily and my Best Plays Report each Saturday and Sunday which will include all the major Road to the Kentucky Derby prep races.
 
Here is the opening race from Belmont Park to get the day off to a good start:

Belmont Park Race 1 Analysis - 7/2 (1:15 p.m. ET)

BEL Race 1 Md Sp Wt (1:15 ET)
#2 La Kara Mia   3-1
#1 Sharp Starr   2-1
#6 Calidad   5-2
#3 Cross Keys   6-1
 
Analysis: La Kara Mia hit the gate at the break in her debut, was away last and was not a threat in an eighth-place finish going six furlongs on turf, sent off at just under 6-1. She now switches to the main track and stretches out to a mile. She is by Medaglia d'Oro out of the multiple stakes winner La Verdad ($1.5 million) who was quite a sprinter and did win at a one turf mile in a stakes race. Rice is 26% winners wit second out maidens. She figures to show more here for Rice who is better second out and is back on track after starting off the meet ice cold.
 
Sharp Starr did not fire last out in an eighth-place finish last out going six furlongs here off a four-month break. She was third in her debut last December and a good second going seven panels in her second career outing. She picks up Ortiz and she has enough pedigree to go long, by Munnings out of a A.P. Indy mare that has dropped three other foals to race, all winners. The DePaz barn is 4 for his last nine 9 (with a +ROI) moving runners from sprint to route.
 
Today’s Featured Race of the Day from Belmont Park:

Belmont Park Race 7 Analysis - 7/2 (4:32 p.m. ET)

BEL Race 7 OClm $80,000C (4:32 ET)
#2 Sniper Shot   7-2
#9 Complexity   5-2
#3 Spinoff   7-2
#5 Win Win Win   6-1
 
Analysis: Sniper Shot is one of two in here sent out by the Pletcher barn. Our top pick has landed in the exacta in all five starts, last out a much the best winner versus Alw-2 optional claimers in the slop at Gulfstream Park going a one turn mile. His first four starts were sprints including a good second two back behind stakes winner Mihos at seven furlongs. He steps up a notch here and catches a really tough group but he looks as if he still has some upside as he makes his third start of his current form cycle.
 
Complexity earned a triple digit Beyer two back beating Alw-2 optional claimers going seven furlongs off the layoff which earned him a trip west for the Malibu (G1). The colt chased a sharp early pace and weakened to finish fourth. He won the Champagne (G1) here at a mile back in '18 in his second career start but then was beaten 20+ lengths in his next two starts in Grade 1 company. The barn is 28% winners with runners coming back off a +180-day layoff. A tough call what we may see out of this guy here.

Live Longshots

These are price plays for exotic players looking to find a couple of extra contenders to use in their trifecta and superfecta wagers. Or for those with smaller bankrolls, you might want to get in a small win-place wager.
 
Belmont Park
R2: #1 Mission Command   8-1
R2: #6 Honorable Hero   8-1
R3: #5 Pacific Jazz   8-1
R3: #2 Rover Nile   8-1
R4: #1 Cairo Prince   8-1
R5: #5 Cotton Candy Cutie   10-1
R9: #10 Central Capital   8-1
 
Good luck today!

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