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Horse Racing

Sunday’s Picks from Belmont Park and Monmouth Park

VegasInsider Staff
VegasInsider Staff Sports Betting Expert
7 minute read
We had plenty of winners on Saturday, but the fireworks were lacking as it was an amazingly chalky day at Belmont Park.

In the early Pick 5 my top pick won four of the races and my second choice won the other race. I cannot recall a payoff lower than the $34.74 windfall for a $1.

The day ended with Tacitus winning the Suburban (G2), my sixth top winner, but he returned just $4.20. The biggest prices of the day at Belmont Park where Dante’s Fire in the 7th at $10.80 and Social Paranoia, who paid $11.80 in the eighth.


We did beat Bellafina in the Great Lady M (G2) at Los Alamitos, our top pick Sneaking Out pulling off the upset and returning $16.40, the $2 exacta with my second choice Bellafina paying $32.60.
 

As you can see below I am going to look for a bit more value with Getmotherarose, who is better than she showed in her last outing where she was beaten 25 lengths in the Intercontinental (G3), a much tougher field than she faces this afternoon.

Coming up on Saturday at Belmont Park we have five graded stakes featuring the $500,000 Metropolitan Mile Handicap (G1) which is a “Win and You’re In” race for the Breeders’ Cup Dirt Mile (G1) this November at Keeneland.

A field of eight will line up led by the Bob Baffert trained McKinzie (2-1) who is coming off a victory in the Triple Bend (G2) at Santa Anita on June 7. It was his first start since tossing in a dud in the Saudi Cup (G1) back in February where he was a well beaten 11th. He ran second in last fall’s Breeders’ Cup Classic (G1).

Among his foes are Carter Handicap (G1) winner Vekoma (5-2) and last year’s Travers (G1) winner Code of Honor (3-1).

Also, on the card is the $400,000 Manhattan (G1) with Instilled Regard the 2-1 morning line favorite. The Chad Brown trainee is coming off a victory in the Ft. Marcy (G2) in his last outing.

We will also venture out to the west coast for the $150,000 Los Alamitos Derby (G3) which is a Road to the Kentucky Derby points race with 20-8-4-2 points up for grabs to the top four finishers.

Bob Baffert appears to have another Kentucky Derby contender in Uncle Chucky. The colt was an impressive winner of the Los Alamitos Derby (G3). My top pick Anneau d’Or scratched, leaving a field of just four.

I am sure today’s early Pick 5 at Belmont Park will pay better than it did yesterday, and for the first time this season I’ll head out to the Jersey Shore for some action from Monmouth Park.

My Best Plays Report for Sunday includes my nine strongest plays from Belmont Park and Monmouth Park.

You can catch the action from Belmont Park from 1:00 to 6:30 ET on FS1. In addition, you can stream the action using the TVG App. The horse betting company based in the U.S. is offering a risk-free bet up to $300 for new players.

To purchase my Belmont Park Report for Sunday click here .
 
Now is the perfect time to purchase my Monthly Package. It gives you a month of Belmont Park Reports daily and my Best Plays Report which will include all the major Road to the Kentucky Derby prep races.
 
Here is the opening race from Belmont Park to get the day off to a good start:

Belmont Park Race 1 Analysis - 7/5 (1:15 p.m. ET)

BEL Race 1 Clm $16,000N2L (1:15 ET)
#1 Queendom 4-1
#7 Mosienko 5-2
#3 Enough Love 2-1
#2 Chasing Losses 5-1
 
Analysis: Queendom made a mild late run to finish fourth last out at this level. She was going turf to dirt after running 10th on the grass against state bred Alw-1 foes two back off a 2 1/2-month break. She gets an extra half furlong here and catches a really slow group. Cancel picks the call and he was aboard her for her maiden score last April and then she was beaten just a neck against state bred $40,000 claimers in her first trip against winners. She looks like a good fit in this spot and just needs to see a little pace in front of her.
 
Moisenko was not a threat last out on turf against $40,000 foes after returning from the west coast. She has never been on a fast dirt surface in the afternoon, five of her starts coming on turf and her first two were here in the slop including her maiden score where she won by 13 3/4 lengths. She faces an easier group here and Rosario picks up the call for Nevin.
 
Today’s Featured Race of the Day from Belmont Park:

Belmont Park Race 8 Analysis - 7/5 (5:04 p.m. ET)

BEL Race 8 Alw $56,000N1X (5:04 ET)
#1 Giant Shoes 6-1
#7 Quickflash 3-1
#8 Tale of the Union 2-1
#2 Big Thicket 5-2
 
Analysis: Giant Shoes is back on the main track after a sixth going long on turf last out in his first go off a 3 1/2-month break. The colt broke his maiden in the slop in his debut and after a ninth in his first trip against winners he was a decent third two back going a mile on the main track at Aqueduct. The Cox barn has been sending out live runners at the meeting and is 24% winners moving runners from turf to dirt. Pedigree wise this is the right move and Castellano sticks. Looks like this guy may still have some upside and is going to be a fair price in this spot.
 
Quickflashmakes his second start off a three-month break. He was overlooked at nearly 13-1 last out and ran a good second in the slop. He was the beaten favorite two back in his first start at this condition, beaten just a neck in a game effort. Kimmel adds blinkers here and is 21% winners with runners making their second start off a 45-180-day break. He owns a solid pace profile throughout and with the hood added should be right in the mix early.

Today’s Featured Race of the Day from Monmouth Park:

Monmouth Park Race 10 Analysis - 7/5 (5:12 p.m. ET)

MTH Race 10 The John J. Reilly Hcp (5:12 ET)
#3 Brother Chub 3-1
#1 Royal Urn 8-1
#5 Prendimi 5-1
#8 Golden Brown 5-2
 
Analysis: Brother Chub won this race in '18 and makes his first start off a 4 1/2 month break here for the Moore barn that is 12% winners (with a +ROI) with runners coming back off a 61-180 day layoff. This guy won the Claiming Crown Express last December, then came up short in two starts at Laurel Park, last out a fourth against $25,000 starter allowance foes. He is a six-time winner over the main track here and will appreciate the returns to the NJ bred ranks.
 
Royal Urn makes his first since January and has not won since '18. However, he makes his first start here for the Breen barn, who adds blinkers and returns him to the NJ bred ranks for the first time since running a decent fourth in this race last year. He followed that up with a neck loss in the Concern at Laurel Park going seven furlongs. He has worked sharply for his return and with the hood added and the barn switch this guy may come back running at a decent price.

Live Longshots

These are price plays for exotic players looking to find a couple of extra contenders to use in their trifecta and superfecta wagers. Or for those with smaller bankrolls, you might want to get in a small win-place wager.
 
Belmont Park
R3: #6 Little Mazzy 8-1
R7: #7 Madeleine Must 8-1
R9: #3 Telekinesis 8-1
R10: #2 Boom Boom Kaboom 12-1  

Good luck today!

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