It was a very good betting week last week, as some great exotic payoffs made up for subpar straight wagering results. The week also underscored the importance of minimizing risk and maximizing value. Too often, even experienced bettors approach exotic wagering like they’re playing the lottery, piling up betting tickets like Lindsay Lohan amasses traffic tickets. The idea of betting exactas, trifectas, superfectas and the like is not to cash a ticket, but to build value. After all, cashing a ticket is easy — just cover every possible combination in the race.
Unfortunately, many handicapping “experts” exacerbate this lotto mentality by chiding players for making bets without the proper bankroll, particularly in the Pick 6, which has become a haven for heavy hitters.
Pari-mutuel betting is not the same as sports betting — the line is never locked in and there are infinitely more ways to lose than win, so managing your money properly is crucial. For the sake of your wallet, always attempt to bet on overlays and shun underlays like an 8-year-old maiden. I’ve highlighted some bets I suggested from last week (and one that I didn’t) to help illustrate this point:
1/26 Santa Anita Race 5
WIN on 2 (at odds of 20-1 or greater) (-$2)
EXACTA BOX 2 with 6,7 (-$8)
TRIFECTA 6,7 with 6,7 with 1,2 (+$82.00)
SUPERFECTA 6,7 with 6,7 with 1,2 with 1,2 (+$151.80)
Notice that the trifecta and superfecta combined featured just 16 combinations and this bet was suggested entirely because I figured the odds on Placid Lake (#2) would be enticing, which they were. Placid Lake finished third at 22-1.
1/26 Santa Anita Race 7
WIN on 2 (at odds of 6-1 or greater) (-$2)
WIN on 5 (at odds of 8-1 or greater) (-$2)
EXACTA BOX 2,5,9 (+$127.60)
In this affair, I liked Bilo, Celtic Dreamin and Go Between and I was equally unimpressed with the betting favorites. Thus, I was able to suggest multiple win bets (Go Between, the eventual victor, did not meet my odds requirements) and a small exotic play that, once again, offered sensational value.
1/28 Fair Grounds Race 1
PLACE on 1 (at odds of 7-5 or greater) (+$1.80)
EXACTA BOX 1 with 5,7 (+$72.20)
TRIFECTA 1 with 6 with 5,7 (-$4)
Some of the best value bets around are well-bet steeds played underneath (second or third) in the exotics. Here, one of two good-looking first-time starters got the win, while the logical selection saved the place.
2/1 Oaklawn Park Race 4
EXACTA 4 with 2,11 (-$4)
This race, while not a suggested play, emphasizes how important it is for horse bettors to stay on their toes in their quest for value. Rock N Sydney, my top choice at fair odds of 5-2, was bet down to 4-5 but, even more importantly, he received $45,043 of the total $55,426 bet to show — 81 percent of the pool. That is the equivalent of 1-9 odds to show and generated what is known as a “negative” pool, which, without getting into specifics, means that if Rock N Sydney ran out of the money (worse than third), all the show payoffs were going to be inordinately high.
Well, that’s exactly what happened and my two other listed picks finished first and third, returning $17.40 and $15.40 to show. It doesn’t count in my stats, but it is something I hope readers of this column will pick up on in the future.
Race to Watch this Weekend: The Donn Handicap at Gulfstream Park on Saturday brings together an interesting cast of eight. DAAHER, a 4-year-old son of Awesome Again, is the likely favorite based on the 114 Beyer he earned in the Cigar Mile in November, but there is a fair amount of speed in the race and I am particularly intrigued by DR GOOGLES BOOGLES, who jumps into Grade I competition after a sixth-place finish in the Grade III Hal’s Hope. I know, not exactly a selling point, but this is a Dale Romans colt that was showing steady progress before that last effort and his odds should be through the roof. SPRING AT LAST, who won the Godolphin Mile, is another that shouldn’t be overlooked. Check out my selections for more analysis and betting suggestions.