Simon Says: Oops, It Happened Again

In last week's column, I noted a race at Oaklawn Park where Rock N Sydney got hammered in the wagering, leading to inflated show payoffs when he ran off the board. Well, it happened again. After Pussycat Doll was scratched in last Saturday's Santa Monica Handicap at Santa Anita, bettors made Hystericalady the 1-5 favorite, with $260,762 (of $290,364 in the pool) bet to show on the BC Distaff runner-up. Of course, Hystericalady finished a dull fourth and the show payoffs were $32.00, $18.20 and $16.80.

On the wagering front, it was another productive week, as the straight betting started catching up with the exotic wagering. The totals thus far:

STRAIGHT BETS
Races (Selections): 26 (29)
Wins: 10
Rate: 38.5%
Return: $69.20
ROI: +19.31%

EXOTIC WAGERS
Bet: $470
Return: $723.00
ROI: +53.83%

Note: Statistics encompass all qualifying bets from January 25 through February 8, 2008.

Among last week's recorded winners was Spring at Last, who upset Daaher in the Donn Handicap at Gulfstream Park. Admittedly, I'm fudging a bit on that one because I actually suggested fair odds of 7-1 (Spring at Last won at 6-1). However, a scratch of Wood Be Willing necessitated adjusting the line. On the same token, I did NOT include Via Tahoe, who was offered at fair odds of 6-1 at Los Alamitos Thursday night. Via Tahoe won at 5.8-1.

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Unfortunately, such play or pass decisions can be gut wrenching - it's just part of the game. As a general rule, it's OK to be a bit more liberal with higher priced steeds, but stand firm on the fair odds of any horse less than 3-1 in the betting. Also, be sure to check the exotic payoffs. Via Tahoe combined with my third choice to produce a $2 exacta worth $66.80 - a figure I didn't expect, thus, I didn't suggest the bet.

Again, it demonstrates why horseplayers must stay on their toes. We are playing the toughest game there is, with exorbitant takeouts and ever-changing circumstances, so it pays - quite literally - to keep an eye on the toteboard.

Races to Watch: Six stakes races are on tap at Fair Grounds racecourse in Louisiana on Saturday, highlighted by the Grade III Silverbulletday for 3-year-old fillies and the Grade III Risen Star for 3-year-old colts and geldings. Of particular interest to me is the Silverbulletday, where Breeders' Cup Juvenile champion, Indian Blessing, figures to be a heavy odds-on favorite. My analysis follows:

FAIR GROUNDS * Race 8 (100%) * $200,000 Purse * 8.5 Furlongs * Dirt

7-Indian Blessing (4/5)
Fair Odds: 1-1
1-Jolie the Cat (5/1)
Fair Odds: 9-2
2-Highest Class (10/1)
Fair Odds: 8-1

COMMENTS: This race looks ripe for an upset. Although INDIAN BLESSING is freakishly fast, there are several signs that today's race might not set up as nicely as some of her previous efforts. To begin with, there is Miss Missile, who is breaking to the probable favorite's inside and has earned recent Early Speed Rations (ESRs) of -16 and -17. True, she hasn't faced the kind of quality speed she'll be facing today, but all her wins have come on or near the pace, so stalking seems out of the question. Second, Indian Blessing was forced to exert a lot of energy in her 2008 debut, which could set her up for a bounce today. Despite recording a slow opening quarter of :22-1/5 over the lightning fast all-weather (yeah, right) surface at Santa Anita, Indian Blessing needed a :21-2/5 second quarter-mile just to keep a narrow 1 ½-length lead at the half. Of course, that led to a :12-4/5 final furlong and another subpar Late Speed Ration of -13.

Add to that, post time odds that could be in the vicinity of 1-5 and value players simply must look elsewhere. JOLIE THE CAT is in great hands and has shown improving LSRs in each of her last two races, culminating with a -1 in her win over today's track in the Tiffany Lass on Jan. 12. Although that victory was accomplished by rating on a slow pace (-2 ESR), Jolie the Cat showed she can come off the pace when she broke her maiden two races back. HIGHEST CLASS is a bit of an enigma. After an impressive allowance score, where she posted a -3 LSR, the daughter of local hero Mineshaft faltered in the Tiffany Lass, finishing a well-beaten third. However, she does appear to be improving and could certainly spring the upset here.

BET(S):
WIN on 1 (at odds of 9-2 or greater)
WIN on 2 (at odds of 8-1 or greater)
EXACTA BOX 1,2
SHOW on 1 & 2 (if more than 75% of the Show pool is wagered on #7)