Frustration, Futility, Fantastic
Last week was interesting.
I started the week by going 0-for-10 on my straight wagers Saturday, and continued to struggle trying to get a decent payoff throughout the week. I thought I had one on Wednesday when Captain Ray nearly overcame a dreadful five-wide trip going a mile at Turfway Park, but he was ultimately second best at 11-1.
Then came Friday. In another case of absurd betting, the Aqueduct crowd made Great Emperor, a 4-year-old maiden with just three lifetime starts, the 2-5 favorite in the second race. Given that my own line put his fair odds at 9-5 and his morning line was 1-2, I figured a negative show pool might result and, sure enough, it did. $116,689 of $126,983 in the show pool was bet on the Kiaran Mclaughlin trainee and, when he ran a dull fourth, one of my suggested show wagers — and only one (Downtown Hamill) — paid a whopping $41.80, putting my straight betting on solid footing.
And speaking of last week: I thought that Indian Blessing would be terribly overbet in the Silverbulletday and, surprisingly, it didn’t happen. True, the undefeated filly went to post at odds less than what I felt were fair, but she was actually underbet in the place and show pools. Indian Blessing received 46.8% of the win dollars, 39.9% of the place money and 41.6% of the show dough.
On the same Fair Grounds card as the Silverbulletday was the Risen Star. And, although the winner of that race, Pyro, needed almost a full second more to complete the 1 1/16-mile distance than the female Indian Blessing did, there is little question, at least in my mind, as to which sophomore was more impressive.
Despite being dead last after an opening half that earned a +1 Early Speed Ration (ESR), Pyro looked like he was shot out of a cannon in mid-stretch, as he went flying past the talented Z Fortune to win by two widening lengths and earn a +3 Late Speed Ration (LSR). He looks like a cinch to win the Louisiana Derby should he be entered.
Straight Betting
Races (Selections): 53 (59)
Wins: 17
Rate: 32.1%
Return: $150.30
ROI: +27.37%
Exotic Wagering
Bet: $766
Return: $1,035.20
ROI: +35.14%
Note: Statistics encompass all qualifying bets from January 25 through February 15, 2008.
Weekend Races to Watch: Three-year-olds are back in the spotlight on Saturday, as Tampa Bay Downs presents the Sam F. Davis Stakes. The Sam F. Davis is a prep for the Tampa Bay Derby and drew an interesting cast of nine, led by Z Humor, who shared a win with Turf War in the Grade III Delta Jackpot in his latest. This race looks wide open and, unless one of the entrants puts forth a big effort, I don’t think you’ll need to worry about any of these come the first Saturday in May.
At Laurel, the Grade II Barbara Fritchie Handicap sees Control System as the 8-5 morning line favorite — and with good cause it would seem. A four-year-old daughter of Lion Hearted (remember him?), Control System posted a career best 106 Beyer in winning for the fifth time in just seven career starts last time.