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Simon Says: A Time to Remember, A Time to Forget
If you followed my plays last week, you have my sympathies — although, hopefully, not my address. After a very good Sunday, things quickly spiraled downward, as I missed on my next eight suggested win bets and my exotic betting resembled a Stephen King novel, full of horrific twists and turns.
Unfortunately, that is the Sport of Kings and I am confident that things will go better this week.
Straight Bets
Races (Selections): 70 (76)
Wins: 21
Rate: 30.0%
Return: $181.10
ROI: +19.14%
Exotic Wagering
Bet: $1,064
Return: $1,108.60
ROI: +4.19%
Note: Statistics encompass all qualifying bets from January 25 through February 22, 2008.
One race I did want to talk about took place on Friday, Feb. 22. In the first race at Fair Grounds Racecourse, I posted the following play:
FAIR GROUNDS * Race 1 (65%) * $16,000 Purse * 6.0 Furlongs * Dirt
3-Class Queen (2/1)
Fair Odds: 9-5
2-Little Gulp (7/2)
Fair Odds: 9-2
1-Jivs C C (5/1)
Fair Odds: 6-1
BET(S): WIN on 3 (at odds of 9-5).
Now, the toughest thing about being a public selector is not knowing what the final odds are going to be — a situation unique to pari-mutuel betting. In this case, Class Queen was bet down to 1-5 — a thoroughly ridiculous price — and wound up being vanned off the track after pulling up lame.
Several things are striking about this situation:
1) Note that the race rating, which ranges from 0-100 percent and measures the relative reliability of the fair odds posted, was 65 percent for this affair — a reasonably high figure. Also notice that the fair odds jibe very closely with the morning line, adding another level of confidence that they are accurate.
2) The purse of the race was just $16,000 and the contest was restricted to $14,000-$16,000 claiming fillies and mares who had never won two races.
3) The track was listed as “sloppy.”
Given all that, why in the world would anyone take 30 cents on the dollar on Class Queen?
Among my two other listed contenders, Little Gulp was 5-1 (about fair), while Jivs C C was 15-1 (representing a 150 percent overlay).
Jivs C C won in a romp and paid $32.20.
Of course, I had no idea that the betting would play out as it did, but that’s why I list the fair odds on each of my top three plays. It is also why I often suggest wagers on horses other than my number one pick.
Beating this game requires a diligence that other forms of gambling simply do not. But nothing is sweeter than making the right bet and seeing it pay off.
Weekend Races to Watch: The Fountain of Youth is scheduled to be run on Sunday at Gulfstream Park and it is the first of the Kentucky Derby prep races that I am really excited about, as it drew a stellar cast. My complete analysis and betting suggestions on the race will be available on Sunday.
