On the rebound
Well, as promised, last week was much kinder on the pocketbook than the week before, as five of 12 suggested win plays were victorious, resulting in a healthy ROI of 107.5 percent (through Thursday’s action).
One of those winners was Cool Coal Man, who annexed the Fountain of Youth at Gulfstream Park. Cool Coal Man is interesting because he’s hinted at superior ability in the past and may, in fact, be improving — despite the unimpressive speed ration figures he earned in last Sunday’s Grade II affair.
On the subject of the Fountain of Youth, can somebody please explain to me why Monba, a three-year-old colt who’s biggest victory to date is a N1X allowance race, was the 7-2 favorite? Yes, I know he was a fast-closing fourth in the Cash Call Futurity in December, but that effort earned just a 91 Beyer and a –6 LSR — decent figures to be sure, but hardly the stuff of legends. Frankly, the heavy betting on Kentucky Bear, who’s maiden debut netted nearly identical numbers (93 Beyer, -6 LSR) made more sense to me — but just barely.
One horse who did live up to his odds on Sunday’s Gulfstream Park card was War Pass, last year’s juvenile champion. True, the horses he beat might be hard pressed to outpace their counterparts on a merry-go-round – with the power off – but War Pass’ manner of victory was, nonetheless, impressive. Under a firm hold by jockey Cornelio Velasquez, the 1-9 favorite drew off by 7 ½ lengths and earned a –2 LSR.
2008 Kentucky Derby Preps
Date Track Race Winner Pace LSR
2/2 GP Swale Stakes (G2) Eaton's Gift -9 -16
2/2 SA Robert B. Lewis Stakes (G2) Crown of Thorns 2 1
2/9 TUP Turf Paradise Derby Nikki'sgoldensteed -9 -8
2/9 FG Silverbulletday Stakes (G3) Indian Blessing -8 -9
2/9 FG Risen Star Stakes (G3) Pyro 1 3
2/10 SA San Vicente Stakes (G2) Georgie Boy 3 -3
2/16 TAM Sam F. Davis Stakes Fierce Wind -4 -3
2/16 SUN Borderland Derby Poni Colada -17 -10
2/18 OP Southwest Stakes (G3) Denis of Cork -19 -13
2/24 GP Fountain of Youth Stakes (G2) Cool Coal Man -6 -8
2/24 GP Allowance War Pass -8 -2
Early Speed Ration Late Speed Ration
-15= Demanding 0= Excellent
-10= Brisk -5= Good
-5= Moderate -10= Fair
0= Soft -15= Poor
And my updated betting statistics:
Straight Betting
Races (Selections): 82 (88)
Wins: 26
Rate: 31.7%
Return: $230.90
ROI: +31.19%
Exotic Wagering
Bet: $1,266
Return: $1,232.00
ROI: -2.69%
Note: Statistics encompass all qualifying bets from January 25 through February 27, 2008.
Weekend Races to Watch: The “Great Race Place” is the place to be on Saturday, as Santa Anita cards the Sham Stakes for three-year-olds and the Santa Anita Handicap, or “Big Cap,” for older horses. Although it’s lost much of its luster in recent years, the Big Cap drew a full field and promises to be an interesting betting affair. At first glance, two horses intrigue me—Awesome Gem, who I think is wildly talented (despite his propensity to finish second) and Champs Elysees, who makes his first start off the grass. In the Sham, I think the undefeated El Gato Malo could be vulnerable, as his last race cast doubt on his ability to go much longer than this. For more analysis and betting suggestions, check out my SimonSays Simulcast Report on race day.
